"Breaking the mid-track is like dancing on the tip of a knife, a volume contraction rebound is all just a show - 80,000 dollars is a touchstone, both bulls and bears are waiting for the other to run out of breath"
BTC is stuck at the 80,000 dollar mark, with a death gap of 4,396 dollars between the 7-day and 30-day moving averages. After a spike to 74,508 dollars in the early morning, it was pulled back, with 50 million dollars in contracts exploding within 15 minutes, a classic 'liquidation absorption' setup by the market makers. The middle Bollinger Band at 83,096.27 dollars is pressing down, while the upper band at 83,848.14 dollars seals the ceiling, with a trading volume reduced to 5,598 BTC, barely touching the average volume line, confirming a 'zombie market'.
Three gates of doom lock in volatility:
Guillotine at 83,848.14 dollars: miner hedge positions + dark pool pressure from exchanges, breaking through requires swallowing a 920,000 dollar sell wall
Meat grinder at 83,096.27 dollars: the cost line for market makers, any rebounds here are just paper
Gate to hell at 77,711.12 dollars: linked to the April 22nd liquidity black hole, breaking down goes straight to the 70,000 dollar abyss
On-chain evidence: whales have deposited 11,985 BTC into Coinbase over three days, enough to drive the price down to 77,500 dollars. Coupled with tonight's hawkish Federal Reserve minutes, market makers hold 1 billion dollars in options delivery chips, just waiting for retail traders to charge in before closing the door and bleeding them out.
Spot traders:
① Reduce positions by 20% for every 500 dollar increase, set buy limits at 77,711/75,000/73,000
② Position holding traders lock in, holding 10% of bullets for a reversal trade at 80,000-83,000 dollars
Contract traders:
① Open 3x hedging orders, close shorts and add longs above 83,096.27 dollars, close longs and add shorts below 77,711.12 dollars
② Set up a short at 83,848.14 dollars + a long at 77,777.77 dollars
The MACD has formed a death cross on the 4-hour chart, reminiscent of the false breakout on March 28 - that day, it spiked to 82,000 dollars before crashing to 74,508 dollars, wiping out both shorts and then longs. For those heavily invested now, it is advisable to check how many dollars your account can withstand in a reverse spike.
Soul-searching question: When the entire network is waiting for the 80,000 dollar breakout, who remembers that on April 22, market makers used the same trick to bury 2,300 BTC at 83,096 dollars? Among those daring to reveal their positions in the comments, how many have enough bullets to withstand the second spike?
As the market continues to change, we must closely monitor market signals to seize new entry opportunities. Like + comment + follow, let's navigate the bull market together and grab this major opportunity!
Intraday: BTC
