【Cryptocurrency Survival Rules: Break the Illusion, Master These 3 Points to Really Make Money】
1. Harsh Truth: No one can predict bull and bear markets
The hindsight bias trap
All "perfect market timing" is survivor bias
It's impossible to confirm the turning point of bull and bear markets in real-time
Historical data shows that 90% of "timing the market" is just luck
Price illusion shatters
Case study: An investor's journey from 1 million to 3 million and back to 500,000:
3 million (at new high) → 2.7 million (unwilling to accept) → 2 million (playing dead) → 500,000 (despair)
This is a typical case of "break-even illusion" leading to wealth evaporation
2. The Iron Law of Market Operation
Pareto Principle
80% of gains occur in 20% of the time
Missing the crucial 5 days reduces returns by 60%
You must be in the market long-term to capture the main uptrend
Main force harvesting tactics
Rally phase: Quickly attract follow-up buying
Distribution phase: Gradual decline like boiling a frog
Complete chip exchange through repeated fluctuations
3. Practical Survival Guide
Three controllable factors
Entry timing
Selling discipline
Position management
Deliberate training method
Establish a mechanical trading system
Set automatic take-profit and stop-loss
Record emotional changes for each trade
Cognitive upgrade path
First cycle: Paying tuition to understand the market
Second cycle: Forming conditioned reflexes
Third cycle: Counterintuitive operations
4. The Truth About Wealth Redistribution
The market operates through:
Rapid rises to attract greed
Slow declines to exploit luck
Achieving a quiet redistribution of wealth
