BTC: As of May 21, 2025, the current price of BTC is $106,500; yesterday's closing pattern was a "small bullish candle," with trading volume decreasing compared to the previous day, indicating a weakening of bullish momentum, but the short-term trend remains bullish.

On-chain data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $329 million yesterday, reflecting strong confidence from institutional investors. The market turnover rate has risen alongside price increases, with short-term investors becoming the main trading force, while recent bottom-fishers have noticeably reduced their holdings, and long-term holders remain steadfast. The chip distribution indicates that the $93,000-$98,000 range serves as the strongest support, while over 1.4 million Bitcoins are accumulated near the $102,000 mark, mostly held for the short term, which could present a selling risk if negative news emerges.

On a macro level, Federal Reserve officials have stated that there are no expectations for adjustments to monetary policy, and the market lacks key data drivers, making short-term price fluctuations likely influenced more by geopolitical factors (such as U.S.-China trade relations and the Russia-Ukraine situation).

Overall, Bitcoin has shown a strong upward trend, reaching $107,985, just a step away from its all-time high. In the past week, the market has lacked significant macro data support, with price fluctuations driven more by external factors. Developments in Trump's policies, signs of easing U.S.-China trade relations, and even the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could all act as catalysts to push Bitcoin higher. Furthermore, the long-short ratio has dropped to a historical low of 0.44, with bearish sentiment running high. On May 20, Bitcoin futures' open interest reached a record $72 billion, indicating that a short squeeze may be brewing. The current high-level fluctuations could be a game of cat and mouse before the shorts get “squeezed,” necessitating close attention to changes in the long-short ratio, as the real adjustment may come after a bearish collapse.

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