BTC: As of May 20, 2025, the current price of BTC is $105,100. The closing pattern from yesterday resembles a 'hanging man,' which typically appears at the end of an upward trend and usually indicates a potential pullback signal. Analyzing trading volume shows an increase in bearish momentum, indicating that the market might face adjustment pressure in the short term.

On-chain data shows that the net inflow of Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. is 6,272 BTC (approximately $667 million), reflecting strong confidence from institutional investors; small players (holding <1 BTC) have slightly increased their positions (+0.55), while medium to large players (100-10,000 BTC) have significantly increased their holdings (+0.9 and +0.85), but holders of 1-10 BTC are still net sellers, indicating short-term profit-taking behavior.

On a macro level, the probability of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in June and July exceeds 91% and 66%, respectively, while high U.S. Treasury yields and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions bring uncertainty to the market. Despite optimistic sentiment from Russia-Ukraine negotiations and trade prospects, weakened expectations for interest rate cuts may suppress the performance of risk assets.

Overall, trading Bitcoin in the short term is quite challenging; although there is a certain probability of reaching new highs in the future, the sustainability is not highly regarded. If new highs are achieved again, then the risk is likely to emerge! On-chain data for BTC reflects the confidence of holders, but the synchronization of net outflows from exchanges and a surge in OTC trading suggests that major funds may be 'offloading' at high prices. This strategy exploits market FOMO sentiment, artificially raising prices through low sell pressure while discreetly shifting chips to OTC for cashing out, rather than genuinely being bullish. From a chip perspective, a significant number of chips have accumulated around $102,000, forming a certain level of support; however, the range between $93,000 and $98,000 remains very strong support, with not many chips being reduced in this range, making it the most densely populated chip area.

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