Wall Street is growing increasingly tense as budget negotiations in Congress stall over a familiar sticking point: SALT tax deductions. A group of Republican lawmakers from high-tax states is holding up the passage of President Donald Trump’s much-promoted federal budget plan, demanding more generous deductions for state and local taxes.

The delay comes despite Trump’s active behind-the-scenes involvement. What was once billed as a “big, beautiful budget bill” has now become mired in internal GOP conflict, casting doubt on the initial goal to pass it ahead of the Memorial Day weekend.

📉 Rising Deficit Fears Rattle Bond Market

Investors aren’t just watching — they’re reacting. The standoff has led to renewed concerns about U.S. fiscal policy, with fears mounting that if a deal does emerge, it may bring a heavy cost: another major increase in the already staggering $36 trillion national deficit.

Financial analysts warn that such a bill could flood the bond market with more government debt, raising yields and pushing borrowing costs higher. UBS strategist Solita Marcelli noted that the final version is likely to include multiple amendments but could still swell the deficit by trillions over the next decade. That would strain demand for Treasuries at a time when confidence is already shaky.

Economist Stephen Juneau of Bank of America warned of a “buyer’s strike” in the bond market, noting that more supply combined with fading demand could trigger a sharp rise in interest rates. That, in turn, could pressure the U.S. dollar and send equities lower — a cascade of effects that might outweigh any growth the bill is designed to stimulate.

📊 Markets React as Uncertainty Builds

Markets have already started to slip. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 ended a six-day winning streak, the Nasdaq posted its first loss in three sessions, and the Dow Jones dropped more than 100 points. Futures fell in early Wednesday trading, indicating continued volatility as traders brace for more uncertainty out of Washington.

The broader context doesn’t help: 30-year Treasury yields are hovering just below 5%, their highest level in years, and last week’s credit rating downgrade by Moody’s only adds to the pressure. Investors are becoming more cautious, and portfolios are being adjusted in real time as they await clarity.

Trump’s proposal may still pass in some revised form — but it’s clear that the path forward is increasingly fraught. Until Congress finds common ground on tax deductions, debt, and spending, Wall Street has little choice but to wait nervously. With no major economic reports due midweek, the spotlight remains fixed on Capitol Hill, where the stakes are rising with each passing hour.




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