In the past six weeks, the price of Bitcoin has surged by about 40%, becoming the focus of the market. Since breaking through the $100,000 mark, this flagship crypto asset has maintained above it for 11 consecutive trading days, demonstrating strong market resilience. Last week, Bitcoin recorded a weekly closing price of $106,500, setting a new historical record for weekly closing. This Wednesday, its price further climbed above $107,500, only about 1.1% away from the historical high of $108,786 set in 2024.
This marks the fourth time in Bitcoin's history that it has closed above $100,000, holding significant technical and psychological significance. The current trend shows that Bitcoin has effectively broken through the previous two weeks of sideways trading range ($102,000 to $105,000) and has set a new interim high, with market bullish sentiment significantly heating up.
Risk aversion and risk appetite resonate
Behind this round of increase, macroeconomic and geopolitical events have become important driving forces. Rating agency Moody's has downgraded the US sovereign debt rating, shaking investor confidence in the traditional financial system and triggering a flight to alternative assets—especially cryptocurrencies—for safety.
At the same time, the easing of China-US trade relations has reduced uncertainty in the global market, enhancing investors' risk appetite. Coupled with ongoing inflationary pressures and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy of maintaining high real interest rates, the attractiveness of Bitcoin as an anti-inflation and hedging tool has further increased.
ETF continues to attract capital, institutional buying builds upward momentum
In this macro environment, the inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs has also performed impressively. Data shows that net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $329 million on May 20, marking the fifth consecutive day of positive inflow. Similarly, the spot Ethereum ETF also performed actively, achieving net inflow for three consecutive days, with a single day reaching $64.9 million. This reflects that institutional investors are gradually allocating more funds to the crypto asset space.
YouHodler market chief Ruslan Lienkha points out that there is still upward inertia in the market: 'Although the possibility of a short-term pullback cannot be completely ruled out, especially against the backdrop of negative stock market sentiment, overall, the risk of significant correction in the short to medium term is low.'
Technical indicators do not show signs of overheating, key resistance may be broken
From on-chain data, the market has not yet entered an overheated zone. According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, an important indicator of market sentiment—the holder profit-loss ratio of transferred tokens (30-day moving average) is currently at 99, far below the overheated threshold of 200, indicating that current investors are not in an irrationally euphoric phase.
As Bitcoin's price approaches historical highs, the next step in the market becomes particularly crucial. If bullish funds can stabilize support above $107,000 and effectively break through the historical high of $108,786 in the following trading days, it is expected to further open up upward space, moving towards a new price range.
Structural benefits are forming, and a market turning point may be just around the corner
The current trend of Bitcoin is not just a technical breakthrough, but under the backdrop of macro uncertainty, the value of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' is being re-evaluated by the market. Continuous inflow of ETF funds, enhanced willingness of institutions to allocate, as well as the resonance of risk aversion and risk appetite all constitute the foundation supporting Bitcoin's further rise.
Market analysts generally believe that if it can break through and stabilize above historical highs, Bitcoin will enter a new stage of pricing logic. The price performance in the coming days will be a key window to observe whether this turning point is officially established.
