In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price has shown significant volatility, briefly breaking through the $106,000 mark. However, it then retreated and consolidated around $103,000.
The sharp fluctuations in the past 24 hours indicate that Bitcoin's price still has a long way to go before reaching a peak. During this volatility, a new macroeconomic model called the 'Decode Macro Trend Oscillation Indicator' (MTO) points to when Bitcoin's price is expected to peak in this cycle.
Decode's macro trend oscillation model and its consistency with Bitcoin peaks.
The Decode macro trend oscillator is a complex tool designed by a Bitcoin analyst named Decode on the social media platform X. This oscillator aggregates about 40 macroeconomic indicators covering interest rates, global liquidity, industrial production, and market volatility, forming 17 carefully selected leading indicators.
These data points are then standardized and visualized as a histogram to generate a cyclical pattern consistent with Bitcoin's historical major tops. A close look at the 'Bitcoin Liquidity Index' chart within the 1-month candlestick timeframe reveals that the light green histogram bars correspond with Bitcoin cycle peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
These peaks are marked by vertical red lines, and the transition of the oscillation indicator from deep red to green seems to provide a visual cue for the end of the bear market phase and the beginning of a price rebound. As of May 2025, the histogram remains in the deep red area but has begun to rise slowly, with the latest bar chart reading at -11.47, indicating that macroeconomic conditions may soon favor a larger rebound for Bitcoin.
BTC mode configuration fine-tunes cycle top predictions.
Decode's analysis goes beyond Bitcoin-specific indicators. In a chart of the S&P 500 index over a 2-month timeframe, Decode makes a long-term comparison of the current global environment with the economic backdrop of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Notably, Decode's macro trend oscillation indicator has demonstrated reliability in predicting recession and expansion periods in both cases.
In both cases, inflationary pressures and declining consumer confidence have kept the indicator deeply in negative territory for years. However, once the histogram turns green, the economy and prices enter a long-term expansion phase.
The third chart provides a more detailed view of Bitcoin's weekly trends, including another commonly used monetary indicator—the growth of M2 money supply. This view highlights how the macro trend oscillation indicator fine-tunes its sensitivity to indicators that directly impact the cryptocurrency market when switching to a decoding configuration called 'Bitcoin Mode.' In this configuration, only a few of the 17 indicators that best identify Bitcoin cycle tops are used.
Currently, although Bitcoin has risen in recent months, its price is still in the negative area of the red histogram. The first deep green bar has yet to appear, let alone the first light green bar that marks the cycle peak. Based on this, the oscillation indicator suggests that Bitcoin still has significant upward potential in this cycle, and it is unlikely to peak in 2025.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $103,300.
