Bitcoin's double-top probe, is the upward momentum weak? Ethereum suddenly stalled after a 40% surge in three days! Is this wave the final frenzy or the calm before the storm? Is jumping in now picking up money or becoming a scapegoat? Hold on, I've pulled out the institutional trump cards, regulatory landmines, and technical signals; decide whether to go all in after reading!

Bitcoin's recent trajectory is like a roller coaster. On May 19, it finally broke through $107,000, only to quickly drop back to $105,000, and the daily indicators show it's overbought, so it looks precarious in the short term. But look at what institutions are doing! MicroStrategy hoarded more than 6,000 more coins this March, holding over 500,000 bitcoins, and Bitwise even claimed it could rise to $200,000. And don’t forget, last year Bitcoin ETFs attracted $33.6 billion; this year it will only be more. However, the risks are apparent: the SEC has delayed its decision on ETF approval, and if it denies it outright, there will definitely be a crash; plus, on May 19, there was a liquidation of $556 million, leaving 130,000 people with nothing, and the speculative sentiment is too strong. My advice is not to go all in at once; buy in batches, and make sure your total position doesn’t exceed 10%. If it drops below $98,000, pull out quickly.

Ethereum is also not peaceful. After the upgrade on May 7, it surged 40% in three days, but here’s the problem: the money in the L2 network is still scattered, and hasn't formed a closed loop; plus, large holders are selling off, causing the market to worry about the main forces running away. The good news is that if BlackRock's application for Ethereum ETF staking is approved, tens of billions of dollars will flood in, with a target price reaching $6,500. Additionally, Ethereum is still the leader in DeFi and NFT, with over 20 million staked coins and an annual yield of 4.5%. However, bears are pessimistic, saying that after the transition from PoW to PoS, it lost its value support, and it could drop to $800 - $1,200. My advice is to buy a small position between $2,200 - $2,400, and be cautious if it drops below $2,500.

The SEC's decision on ETFs on June 3, as well as the approval of Ethereum's staking ETF, are key points that will determine the market! Right now, the market's greed index is off the charts, so don’t get too excited and chase the highs; preserving capital is more important than anything else!