Will there be a season of knockoffs soon? Is there still a season of knockoffs in this round?
Predicting in advance that the season of knockoffs will arrive in July! Why?
The market expects the first interest rate cut to be in September. Even if there is a rate cut in June or July, it won’t immediately lead to significant liquidity; it will take some time after the rate cut for that to happen. Therefore, in the near term, the conditions for a season of knockoffs are not met. Generally speaking, if BTC rises and its market share declines, it can be considered a knockoff season.
The judgment is that the Federal Reserve may start cutting rates in Q4 or even Q3. As interest rates fall, liquidity will gradually increase. BTC should gradually start moving as well, and a season of knockoffs may occur.
Because during this period, it aligns with the market sentiment cycle + macro environment. In the first half of 2018, the main nets of EOS and TRON went live, which triggered a wave of public chain enthusiasm. In the first half of 2022, the well-known project StepN also emerged.
On one hand, as the demand side of the market, sentiment will not suddenly shift from bullish to bearish; there will be a continuity. On the other hand, as the supply side of the market, certain projects may face development difficulties and might take a little longer to materialize.
More importantly, with the approval of ETFs and the entry of institutions, the influence of internal industry groups (mining pools, exchanges, etc.) is weakening. Moreover, the amount of BTC to be mined is decreasing, and the impact of halving is already diminishing.
Conversely, the macro influence is increasing, so the loosening of macro liquidity will have a stronger determining power over the season of knockoffs. This is why it is still believed that there will be a season of knockoffs.
Whether the specific knockoff season will see a general rise, rotating rise, or local rise depends on the amount of liquidity, but it is generally unlikely to be a general rise, as there are simply too many cryptocurrencies. In the upcoming time, if there are signals, we will gradually build positions. If the prices of the knockoffs return to the low points around April, we can buy in several phases. This opportunity brought about by the adjustment of U.S. Treasury bonds may be the best profit opportunity in the next year.
Bottom fishing cannot be rushed; we need to take time during the volatile market. We can operate slowly following the rhythm like before Trump's election last year. Once the market in June or July comes, catching it once will be enough for you to live off for a year!
If you still don’t know how to layout your strategy! Feel free to consult!
Today’s focus: AAVE MASK SYRUP
