Today's Market Analysis
Key Signal Patterns and Trends at Daily Level
The previous candlestick formed a standard hammer, indicating short-term bottom reversal momentum, but caution is needed for false breakout risks. The Bollinger Band continues to open upward, and the short-term moving averages (5/10/20 days) are in a bullish arrangement, indicating that the medium-term upward trend remains unchanged.
Momentum Indicator Divergence
The MACD fast and slow lines are forming a death cross above the zero line, combined with a second increase in volume bars, suggesting a depletion of short-term bullish strength. The KDJ indicator rapidly fell from the overbought zone (above 80) to the 50 neutral line, and attention should be paid to whether a double top pattern forms.
Key Support and Resistance
Support level: 102,000 (previous low) constitutes strong support, and a break could trigger a trend reversal. Resistance levels: previous high 108,300 and the fake breakout high of 109,500 are the focal points for bulls and bears.
II. 4-Hour Level Adjustment Characteristics
Confirmation of Fluctuation Range
Continuous bullish candles are blocked at the upper Bollinger Band (around 108,000), forming a “shooting star” bearish pattern. The moving average system (5/10/20 periods) is converging at the mid-track (105,000), indicating that a directional choice is approaching.
Analysis of Volume and Price Relationship
The volume bars are decreasing alongside price declines, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum, and caution is needed for rebound repair demand. The VR indicator (around 140) is in the neutral zone and has not triggered overbought/oversold signals.
Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis (Interconnected Interpretation)
I. Interconnection Features with Bitcoin
Lagging Performance
ETH is weaker than BTC, and the resistance level of 2,600 (previous high) has not been effectively broken, suggesting a difference in fund rotation. The support level of 2,400 (previous low) has been regained, forming a “double bottom” prototype, but confirmation with volume is needed.
Key Interval Division
Short-term: Fluctuation range of 2,400-2,600, breaking 2,600 could test 2,700 (previous high) resistance. Medium-term: If it breaks below 2,400, it may explore 2,200 (0.618 retracement level).
In summary, today's operational suggestion is to focus on short positions!
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