BTC has returned to 100,000 and seems relatively stable above that level for now. Will there be an altcoin season soon?
➤ Is an altcoin season simply a decline in BTC's market share?
❚ An altcoin season at least requires BTC to stabilize.
When discussing the altcoin season, most friends intuitively feel that it is a decline in BTC's market share.
As a barometer of the industry, there has almost never been an environment where BTC declines while altcoins surge simultaneously.
At the very least, BTC needs to stabilize for an altcoin season to potentially occur.
❚ Historically, the altcoin season starts with BTC rising + a decline in BTC's market share.
Let's review history together. Brother Bee removes the market value of USDC and USDT, then calculates BTC's market share.
At the end of 2017 and the end of 2021, the comparison chart of BTC's market value and market share shows the same state.
The blue line represents BTC's market share, and the orange line represents BTC's market value.
At the end of 2017 and the end of 2021, the blue line, representing BTC's market share, reached its peak first. Then the orange line, which represents BTC's market value, reached its peak.
In other words, between these two peaks, the orange line is still rising, indicating that BTC is still increasing. However, the blue line is declining, meaning BTC's market share is decreasing.
This is when the altcoin season started! It is accompanied by the rise of BTC and the decline in BTC's market share.
Historically, the altcoin season starts with BTC rising + a decline in BTC's market share.
❚ There is no altcoin season in a bull market.
Looking back at mid-2019, the situation was exactly the opposite. BTC's market value peaked first, then BTC's market share reached its peak.
Between these two peaks, BTC is declining while BTC's market share is rising. It's just that altcoins are declining more slowly; it is not a case of BTC declining while altcoins rise.
There is no altcoin season in a bull market.
➤ What is the difference between a bull market and a bear market?
The difference between a bull market and a bear market may be twofold:
❚ Different sentiment cycles
◆ In 2019, after experiencing a major bear market in 2018, sentiment rebounded.
◆ In contrast, in 2017 and 2021, it was a year after BTC halving, and BTC's scarcity triggered bullish sentiment.
❚ Different macro environments
◆ In the first half of 2018-2019, the Federal Reserve was in a tightening monetary policy. At the end of 2018, the Federal Reserve announced that it would stop balance sheet reduction in mid-2019, thus triggering bullish sentiment. However, the first half of 2019 still lacked sufficient liquidity.
◆ In 2017, during the initial stage of interest rate hikes, policies often have a certain lag. During the initial stage of interest rate hikes, market liquidity was still relatively abundant. Just like in 2025, we are currently in the early stages of interest rate cuts (after cuts in 2024), and liquidity in the market is still relatively tight.
In contrast, 2021 was an environment of significant monetary easing.
➤ Conditions for an altcoin season
Through comparison, we can understand the two conditions for the altcoin season and a bull market:
One is the sentiment and cycle within the industry, which is currently met.
The other is the macro environment forming relatively sufficient liquidity, which is still not met.
Additionally, in the previous chart, we also see: the start of the altcoin season historically begins with the rise of BTC + the decline of BTC's market share. This state actually indicates that BTC is rising while altcoins are rising even more. This situation clearly also requires the market to have sufficient liquidity for both BTC and altcoins to surge simultaneously.
Therefore, industry factors and macro factors are two necessary but insufficient conditions for the altcoin season.
➤ Will there be an altcoin season soon?
The market expects the first interest rate cut to be in September. Even if there is a rate cut in June or July, it will not immediately lead to significant liquidity, and it will take some time after the rate cut for that to happen.
Therefore, the recent situation does not meet the conditions for an altcoin season.
➤ Will there still be an altcoin season in this round?
Although many friends are despairing about the altcoin season, we still cannot rule out the possibility of an altcoin season.
Note that, overall, BTC rising + a decline in BTC's market share can be considered an altcoin season.
Brother Bee's judgment is that the Federal Reserve may start to cut rates in Q4 or even Q3. As interest rates fall, liquidity will gradually increase. BTC should gradually start, and the altcoin season may occur in the first half of 2026, primarily in Q1.
Because during this period, it aligns with the market sentiment cycle + macro environment.
Brother Bee has mentioned more than once that in the first half of 2018, EOS and TRON launched their mainnets, which triggered a wave of public chain enthusiasm. In the first half of 2022, the well-known project StepN also emerged.
On one hand, as the demand side of the market, sentiment will not suddenly shift from bullish to bearish; there will be continuity.
On the other hand, as the supply side of the market, some projects have development difficulties and may take longer to launch.
More importantly, with the approval of ETFs and the entry of institutions, the influence of internal industry groups (mining pools, exchanges, etc.) is weakening. Moreover, the amount of BTC left to mine is decreasing, and the impact of halving is naturally decreasing. Conversely, the influence of macro factors is increasing, so macro liquidity easing will have a stronger decisive power over the altcoin season. This is why Brother Bee still believes there will be an altcoin season.
➤ An altcoin season is unlikely to be a widespread surge.
Whether the altcoin season is a widespread surge, a rotation surge, or a localized surge depends on the size of liquidity.
◆ Large liquidity, the closer it is to a widespread surge;
◆ Moderate liquidity may lead to a rotation surge;
◆ Limited liquidity may lead to localized surges.
However, it is generally unlikely to be a widespread surge because there are simply too many cryptocurrencies.
On the other hand, it depends on the narratives within the Web3 industry. Strong narratives in certain sectors and projects will still be relatively optimistic in terms of the timing and magnitude of their rises. In contrast, some uninnovative clone projects, or those that are hastily put together, may not attract market interest.
Currently, Brother Bee personally sees three narratives as promising:
One is AI, which can be combined with many sectors, such as trading, gaming, etc.
The second is RAW / RWAFi / PayFi, which have a certain Web3 background and may not be overly limited by bullish or bearish cycles.
The third is chain abstraction; there are just too many Layer 1 and Layer 2 solutions. The market needs chain abstraction.
In addition, DePin also has certain opportunities, but comparatively, AI + DePin should have a greater market.
➤ In conclusion
Brother Bee's viewpoint:
First, there is no altcoin season in the near term.
Second, there is still a high probability of an altcoin season in this round.
Third, before a rate cut, it cannot be ruled out that there could be further declines; Trump may negotiate with countries that have suspended tariff policies to moderately increase tariffs.
If there are no black swan events, the market may go through a volatile period. It is somewhat similar to the period from March to September last year when the market was waiting for reactions before the rate cut. However, it will not be exactly the same. Last year, BTC experienced overall fluctuations, but altcoins fluctuated downward. Recently, there may be some strong altcoins, as it is a bull market cycle year.
However, whether the US stock market and BTC will crash depends on whether black swan events occur.
Japan's interest rate hike may have some impact. Japan's current benchmark interest rate of 0.5% is the highest since 1996. The yen, recognized internationally as a safe-haven asset, may lead to unpredictable market reactions if it continues to raise rates. Japan's inflation rate is still somewhat high, and further rate hikes are possible. However, Brother Bee believes that Japan's rate hike and traditional financial markets and investors should have certain expectations, which do not constitute a major black swan. Anything unexpected, Brother Bee cannot predict.
