Strategist's Big Picture Analysis: (Issue 207) Will Bitcoin's daytime drop reverse into a night-time V-shaped recovery?

First, we need to understand why the V-shaped recovery. The stablecoin bill was passed in the Senate early in the morning!

The stablecoin bill is something Trump has been stressing must be passed by August this year!

Next, it goes to the House of Representatives for the President's signature, and passing it is not in question!

After all, how much has Trump contributed to crypto during his presidency?

Although the strategic reserve was poorly passed, it was still passed. Getting in first and then maneuvering later is the same; once it's legal, everything is easier to discuss!

The passage of the stablecoin bill is a huge benefit for Bitcoin and ETH, and stablecoins are very likely to be issued on the ETH chain.

Currently, the Senate's passage of the stablecoin bill is just a phased success, with short-term market impact.

There hasn't been a direct surge yet; there’s still a distance to cover.

In the short term, it's positive for market fluctuations, and the thought process remains unchanged, watching for a downturn to wash out weak hands, waiting for interest rate cuts to confirm the start of a new bull market.

Let's talk specifically about the market:

Look at the clearing chart: short positions have gone through this wave of cleansing, it's just that it's currently hard to find the peak. Last night, there was a V-shaped recovery, and this morning feels like another peak is coming!

Market fluctuations are meant to shake out positions, instilling fear in the shorts and excitement in the longs.

The divergence between major players and retail investors is stark; the major players are offloading while retail investors are buying. Ask yourself if you're afraid of missing out. Next, the focus will be on clearing long positions, and once cleared, the bull market will start its main wave.

Now, let's take a look at Bitcoin's K-line: if it goes up again, there will be selling pressure from spot trading, and the market is in a critical triangular area. Currently, trading is very cautious, mainly waiting and observing, planning trades once the market moves.

The strategist's personal view is bearish!

Let’s prepare two trading plans: for a breakout and a breakdown.

If it breaks out, as mentioned in yesterday's live stream, after the breakout there will also be a chance to pull back to 110,000; if it stabilizes, we will act.

If it breaks down, it’s simple: both shorting on the rebound and buying the dip are okay.

Bitcoin ETF:

Yesterday, a large purchase was made, buying 6,272 Bitcoins amounting to $667 million.

The strategist believes that influenced by yesterday's stablecoin news, the retail market in the U.S. has begun to FOMO buy. Even if they are inexperienced, buying BTC spot ETFs, they won’t get trapped; in the end, they can still make money, so it’s not a big issue.

Summary: The positive macro sentiment is affecting the market. If the positivity doesn’t last, the market will begin to cool down. I believe this is the beginning of a crash.