Will US stocks continue to crash tonight? Or will they dip first?
BTC has had significant fluctuations in the past two days. Here's a summary based on news and logic:
On May 17, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating for the first time in 108 years after the US stock market closed on Friday: from the highest rating of AAA to Aa1! The US stock market avoided volatility by closing.
On May 18, Bessent started to put out fires for the Monday US stock market opening by claiming that the economic development in the US is very good, and as the tariff issues are resolved, the GDP growth rate will outpace the debt growth rate. The US will not fall into a debt crisis.
Due to these two pieces of news, Bessent's remarks caused BTC to surge last night. This morning, as US Treasury and stock futures opened, the power of Moody's began to show, resulting in a frantic sell-off of US Treasuries, leading to rising yields. US stock futures subsequently fell sharply, and BTC followed suit.
After Moody's, the three major rating agencies completely removed the US's AAA highest credit rating. The deterioration of US finances and high debt levels, along with the uncertainty of Trump's policies, have led to a decline in US credit, resulting in a double blow to the US dollar and US Treasuries. Tonight, US stocks may follow suit.
The collapse of US credit has profound impacts on the US dollar, US stocks, and US Treasuries, similar to what Singapore banks predict: the dollar may have peaked, the attractiveness of US Treasuries is declining, and the ceiling for US stocks is being suppressed.
In the short term, this may be negative for BTC, but long term it could be beneficial. As a safe-haven asset, funds will flow into BTC after the dollar collapses, as previously practiced. After short-term fluctuations, BTC has the opportunity to continue rising.
Pay attention to the trends of US stocks and ETFs after the market opens tonight. Watch for BTC and ETH to see if they will dip along with the US market, and look for potential golden cross opportunities after the SKDJ 4-hour oversold condition.
