7 hours ago: "I personally allocated 20% in gold, expecting gold prices to rise to $10,000 to $20,000 by the end of this market cycle."
This article is from: Fortune
Translation | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina); Translator | Azuma (@azuma_eth)
Arthur Hayes is an iconic figure in early Bitcoin history, co-founding the offshore exchange BitMEX in 2014, but later faced legal issues for violating US regulations. Recently, Hayes admitted to failing to establish adequate anti-money laundering controls, accepted probation, and paid fines, but received a full pardon from Trump at the beginning of the year.
Currently, Hayes is focused on managing the family fund Maelstrom, while still being a highly influential figure in the crypto asset field. (Fortune) Special Correspondent Anna Tutova interviewed him during the Dubai Token-2049, where Hayes shared his views on the current market - including predicting that BTC may reach $200,000 in the short term, and is expected to surpass $1 million by 2028.
In the interview, Hayes also analyzed the ETH and altcoin markets and explained his reasons for allocating 20% in gold assets.
The following is the complete interview, content has been condensed and edited.
Q1: About the true deficit of the United States
Anna: You referred to the recent borrowing operations of the US Treasury as a "smoke and mirrors" approach, why?
Arthur Hayes: The Treasury has been depleting its Treasury General Account (TGA) and utilizing "extraordinary measures" (government programs with insufficient funding) to circumvent the borrowing limit, resulting in a decline of the TGA from $750 billion to $450 billion this quarter, which means $300 billion in spending has not been realized through new debt, and the actual borrowing scale far exceeds official data.
This is quite confusing. Because we are in a debt ceiling period, theoretically the US government cannot net increase borrowing, but they maintain spending without breaching the limit through various accounting means. From January to March 2025, Treasury borrowing was 22% higher than the same period last year, and the deficit is actually expanding.
Q2: About market liquidity
Anna: What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Arthur Hayes: I believe the actual borrowing needs of the US government are much larger than what public data shows, so Treasury Secretary Bessent will have to issue more debt and will need to leverage the banking system to the maximum for this debt. The end result will be further flooding of global dollar liquidity as the US government increases spending.
In short, this is the essence of the repurchase operation, and I believe it will enhance market liquidity. Based on this, I judge that Bitcoin bottomed on April 9, and as the government continues borrowing and Bessent ensures low-cost financing, the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise significantly.
Q3: About altcoin season
Anna: So how high does Bitcoin need to rise to initiate the altcoin market? What are the key factors driving the start of altcoin season?
Arthur Hayes: I believe Bitcoin needs to break through $110,000 and continue to increase to the range of $150,000 to $200,000. I expect this situation to occur in the summer or early third quarter of this year, after which funds will begin to rotate into various altcoins.
Q4: About bull market growth expectations
Anna: Do you think the upcoming altcoin market will see a crazy super cycle surge like in 2021? Or will it only experience a slight rebound?
Arthur Hayes: It is unlikely that we will see a scenario like in 2021 where all coins surge by 100 times. The market will see new narrative hotspots, and some coins may surge dramatically, but the long-term stagnant "dinosaur coins" in your holdings are not rising for a reason. Many projects are overvalued, have low circulation, lack real users and income, and are merely speculative based on exchange listings; now their prices have dropped by 95%, and I do not believe they will perform well in the next cycle.
Q5: About personal return expectations
Anna: What is your expected return rate in this market cycle? What are the usual target price levels and return rates you set?
Arthur Hayes: At least outperform Bitcoin's growth. If we decide to allocate funds, the target assets must be able to exceed Bitcoin's return.
Q6: About Trump
Anna: What are your expectations for Trump's crypto policy?
Arthur Hayes: His team will likely introduce crypto-friendly policies, but that doesn't mean the specific projects you hold will necessarily appreciate, nor does it mean the policies will advance according to your expected timeline.
Currently, market expectations are too high; some even believe that crypto policy will be Trump's top priority. But don't forget that Trump is a politician, and he has many higher-priority matters to handle; everyone needs to be patient.
Q7: About gold
Anna: In the context of increasing market uncertainty, we see a significant rise in gold. Have you allocated any gold assets, or are you completely focused on cryptocurrencies?
Arthur Hayes: I hold gold long-term, storing physical gold bars in a vault, while also holding a large number of gold mining stocks - considering the surge in gold prices, these assets are still undervalued. I believe there is significant upside potential for gold, as central banks continue to accumulate.
More importantly, I expect the United States to significantly revalue its gold reserves through dollar depreciation against gold to achieve debt dilution. By the end of this market cycle, gold prices may reach $10,000 to $20,000.
Gold accounts for about 20% of my personal investment portfolio.
Q8: About ETH vs SOL
Anna: That proportion is quite high! There is a lot of debate in the market about ETH and SOL; which one do you favor more?
Arthur Hayes: I believe ETH has more upside potential, although it is currently under scrutiny - everyone thinks it is not doing anything, and the development team keeps making mistakes. But the reality is it still maintains the highest on-chain locked value (TVL), has the largest developer community, and is the safest PoS blockchain. Indeed, despite its price performance since 2020 being less than satisfactory.
SOL has clearly performed well, but if I were to allocate new fiat currency now, I believe that in the upcoming 18-24 months of a bull market, ETH's growth may surpass that of SOL.
Q9: About $1 million BTC
Anna: You previously predicted Bitcoin would reach $1 million; when do you expect this target to be achieved?
Arthur Hayes: I believe Bitcoin will reach $1 million before the end of Trump’s presidency, which is by the end of 2028.
Q10: About annual trend expectations
Anna: How do you expect the specific trends of the crypto market this year?
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin's dominance will continue to rise, potentially approaching $200,000 in this wave of increase. Then altcoin season will arrive, and we will see some interesting phenomena. By the end of the year, Bitcoin's target price is approximately $250,000.
