Original work by Deep Tide TechFlow, May 22, 2025, Henan.
On May 22, the 14th anniversary of Bitcoin Pizza Day, Bitcoin also broke through $110,000, setting a new historical high.
In other words, in the 15 years after 2010, if you bought Bitcoin at any moment, you would not lose money; Bitcoin does not disappoint anyone.
I guess many friends, like me, have seen a lot of sentiments and sighs in their social circles, telling stories of how they missed Bitcoin back in the day and how they sold Bitcoin too early.
For instance, a colleague of mine once sold 10 Bitcoins to pay rent, leading to various sighs: 'If only I had bought Bitcoin back then, if only I had held onto it...'
Whenever this happens, many people attribute the wealth of early Bitcoin investors to pure luck, saying they 'knew beforehand', as if 'knowing beforehand' necessarily equates to 'getting rich'.
Today, I want to share two stories with you about what it truly means to miss out on Bitcoin and why one might miss it.
The first story is about a Zhihu girl and Bitcoin.
You might have seen an answer on Zhihu: on December 21, 2011, a female university student asked, 'As a junior student with 6,000 yuan, what good financial investment suggestions do you have?'
On that day, a netizen named 'blockchain' replied: 'Buy Bitcoin, save your wallet file well, and then forget that you had 6,000 yuan. Look again in five years.'
This answerer is an early promoter of Bitcoin, Chang Jia, the founder of BabiTi.
Since then, whenever Bitcoin surges, netizens flock to the comments section, tirelessly telling the questioner how much their investment would be worth now if they had bought Bitcoin back then. The latest data suggests that if the questioner had invested the entire 6,000 yuan into Bitcoin, they could have bought over 300 coins, which today would be worth approximately 33 million USD, or 230 million RMB.
So, the question arises, did the questioner finally buy Bitcoin?
Hehe, actually, I know what happens next. In 2018, while working in Beijing, I coincidentally made contact with this questioner on Zhihu, let’s call her Bamboo, and then a colleague did an interview with her.
The final answer is: No.
She did not make any investments; in the spring of 2012, she took her 6,000 yuan scholarship and went on a week-long trip with friends to Hangzhou and other places.
From then on, every time Bitcoin surged, comments under this question seemed to constantly remind her that she missed out on the chance to get rich.
But Bamboo still has not purchased Bitcoin, and although she later regretted it, she believes, 'If I were still the same person I was back then, I would still make the same choice as seven years ago.' In Bamboo's view, a person's character remains unchanged, like the character setup in a novel; actions derive from character and will not change much.
So the question arises, do you think Bamboo missed out on Bitcoin? If you were Bamboo, would you regret it late at night?
For now, let me share the second story.
The protagonist of the second story is somewhat of an internet celebrity; those who enjoy stock trading might have heard of him, his name is Old Duan.
Old Duan, whose real name is Duan Hongbin, is a financial columnist and one of China's earliest Bitcoin players.
In 2010, he saw Bitcoin for the first time on Google Reader and was immediately attracted. He described Bitcoin as 'a tool for losers to turn around in the geek world.'
Old Duan recalled the scene at that time, feeling that the geeks had created new inventions in the virtual world. He likened Bitcoin to 'the stones on the island of stone money'. Here, a knowledge point is added for note-taking: the island of stone money refers to Yap Island in the western Pacific, where currency is represented by stones. These stones have diameters of a few centimeters to several meters and weigh tons, making them impossible to carry. They are simply left there, with ownership recorded through oral transmission. Transactions are based on consensus and collective memory, considered one of the earliest 'virtual currency' systems. The currency system of the island of stone money illustrates an important economic principle: the value of money lies not in its physical form, but in social consensus and trust systems.
Speaking of Old Duan, he became one of the promoters of Bitcoin in China at the dawn of its inception.
In July 2011, Old Duan wrote his first article related to Bitcoin, titled ('What thing can appreciate 3,000 times in a year?'). In this article, he mentioned that Bitcoin, as a monetary system free from government will, relies entirely on market trust and demand for its value. He believes that the total supply limit of 21 million can effectively prevent forgery and duplication, while the established output rate can avoid inflation.
In his article, Old Duan urged everyone to at least buy one Bitcoin. He said, 'At present, the price of a Bitcoin is only about 100 yuan, even if you lose it all, that's just a meal, but if in the coming years the number of Bitcoin users expands to tens of millions, then on average, each person would not even get one coin. At that time, having one coin would make you rich.'
In 2025, as Bitcoin broke through $110,000, looking back at such expressions indeed counts as golden advice.
In the same year, Old Duan, along with two other early Bitcoin players, Chang Jia and QQagent, co-founded the Chinese Bitcoin community 'BabiTi', which had a profound impact on later blockchain participants. Notably, QQagent is the earliest translator of the Bitcoin white paper and co-founder of Bitmain, who has to some extent rewritten the history of cryptocurrency.
In July 2012, Bitcoin's price hovered around $7, and Old Duan decided to establish the Bitcoin fund 'Old Duan Bitcoin No. 1', which was the first Bitcoin fund in China. Due to legal and market risks, this fund did not target public fundraising; the total scale of the first phase was 100,000 RMB, with 40% from Old Duan himself and 60% from friends around him.
Old Duan publicly promised that if Bitcoin disappeared or its value dropped to zero, he would fully compensate investors. As a fund manager, he does not charge management fees, only a 20% commission on profits.
So why was Old Duan so firmly bullish on Bitcoin at that time?
His reasoning is simple: the value of an item is determined by the market. If more and more people believe it is valuable, then it is valuable. Unlike randomly printed banknotes, Bitcoin does not lead to inflation, so one might consider allocating some banknotes to Bitcoin.
Moreover, based on Bitcoin's halving mechanism every four years, November 28, 2012, was precisely the end of the first four years. According to economic principles, an increase in demand and a decrease in supply will inevitably lead to a rise in price.
However, Bitcoin, an 'uninvited guest' originating from the virtual world, developed at a pace far exceeding Old Duan's expectations, propelled by real-world black swan events.
In early 2013, the President of Cyprus gave a speech announcing that to obtain emergency aid loans from the EU, the government would levy a deposit tax on local bank depositors. Upon hearing this news, the public rushed to the banks to convert their currency into Bitcoin, causing the price of Bitcoin to soar from over $30 to $265 within just a few months.
Old Duan felt immense pressure during this storm. Every morning upon waking, he found that the net value of the Bitcoin fund was continuously hitting new highs, increasing more than tenfold within eight months. Friends participating in the investment called him one after another, urging him to 'sell quickly and take the profit'. Under such pressure, Old Duan chose to liquidate the Bitcoin fund in advance in April.
In a media interview, Old Duan mentioned that the reason for his early liquidation was: 'I believe that the price surge of Bitcoin has reached its peak.'
After experiencing this volatility, Old Duan began to have doubts about Bitcoin, believing: 'Only when new people keep entering will the price continue to rise; once no new people come in, it will collapse immediately.'
Ultimately, Old Duan set a flag, stating, 'I will never buy any Bitcoin again.'
In November 2013, five months after Old Duan liquidated the Bitcoin fund, Bitcoin unexpectedly surged again.
However, at this point, Old Duan gradually shifted from a promoter of Bitcoin to a critic. This month, he published a landmark article titled ('How many people will this 'Faceless Man' of Bitcoin swallow?'), in which he publicly 'broke' with Bitcoin.
Old Duan candidly stated in his article: 'Bitcoin has gone crazy! We are witnessing the birth of a giant bubble.'
He believes that the biggest difference between the Bitcoin bubble and other historical bubbles is that it is a global bubble, and the future price increase will astonish everyone. However, once it collapses, it will trap a large group of people. He emphasized that this is not a prediction but an inevitable occurrence.
He further pointed out that the essence of Bitcoin is very similar to 'pyramid schemes', where the upper levels continuously benefit from the lower levels, and the lower levels must find new lower levels to profit. If new lower levels cannot be found, the whole system will collapse. Old Duan likened Bitcoin to the 'Faceless Man' from 'Spirited Away', believing its greatest value lies in satisfying people's fantasy of 'getting rich overnight'.
In the article, Old Duan summarized two truths about Bitcoin.
First, for the vast majority of people, reasoning is useless; the real driving force is 'envy'. People will think, 'Why can you get rich while I can't?' So they take out their savings and unhesitatingly buy Bitcoin.
Second, whether Bitcoin has practical applications is not important; what matters is how many participants are willing to engage in this game. Whether the news is good or bad, it is good news for Bitcoin. The worst is having no news.
Thus, Old Duan parted ways with the Bitcoin world, turned to promote some altcoins, and rooted in the stock circle, becoming a financial columnist.
For a long time afterward, Old Duan did not publicly mention Bitcoin on social media, and the crypto circle gradually forgot him. Later, when people thought of Bitcoin's promoters in China, they would think of Wu Jihan, Li Xiaolai, and others.
By March 2021, Old Duan mentioned Bitcoin again. He stated that at his peak, he owned a four-digit amount of Bitcoin worth several billion yuan, but most of it was sold after making dozens of times the return. Now, he still has a three-digit 'leftover' amount, and all of these Bitcoins are in an already bankrupt exchange - Mt. Gox.
Mentougou was once the world's largest Bitcoin exchange, losing over 850,000 Bitcoins due to a hacker attack in 2014. Since 2019, Mt. Gox has begun implementing a liquidation compensation plan, but this plan has been repeatedly delayed until July of this year, when the compensation work officially began, with some creditors gradually receiving payments.
Unexpectedly, the bankrupt Mt. Gox became the last Bitcoin steward of early promoters.
With Bitcoin's resurgence, newcomers continue to flood into this market, remembering today's industry leaders and their legendary stories: Wu Jihan, Wu Gang, Shen Yu, Xu Mingxing, Li Lin, Zhao Changpeng... And Old Duan, this former Bitcoin pioneer, has thus been submerged in the long river of Bitcoin history.
Alright, the second story is also finished.
In 2021, both Bamboo and Old Duan learned about Bitcoin; who truly missed out on Bitcoin?
In my view, Bamboo did not actually miss out on Bitcoin.
This is also a misconception for many people; many will misinterpret the information they once heard as investment opportunities they could grasp. For example, at a gathering, you heard someone recommend buying Bitcoin and Nvidia, but you didn't buy it...
Later, when Bitcoin and Nvidia stocks surged, you felt you missed the opportunity to get rich, and then sighed in your social circle, 'There was once an opportunity for financial freedom in front of you, but you did not cherish it.'
I can only say you are overthinking; this is not your opportunity.
In reality, this information is just a part of the numerous messages you receive daily; you haven't studied it in depth. Moreover, there is a large amount of erroneous investment information that you have also forgotten. This is survivor bias — you only remember those successful cases in hindsight.
So, what is it that truly constitutes missing out? It is when you spend a lot of time and energy researching and invest huge sums of money, yet still do not gain any returns.
For example, Old Duan deeply studied Bitcoin and once achieved dozens of times the return, but exited early and subsequently turned against it, missing out on dozens of times the returns from Bitcoin afterward.
This can be considered a form of missing out.
Why did Old Duan, once a believer, suddenly break with Bitcoin?
I dare to express my immature opinion here.
When Old Duan liquidated his Bitcoin fund in 2013, firmly believing that the Bitcoin price surge had reached its peak, he began looking for various reasons to prove that his decision was correct to maintain the rationality of his judgment. This psychological defense mechanism prevented him from viewing Bitcoin's subsequent developments objectively, much like how one wishes their ex-partner poorly after a breakup.
However, later, when Bitcoin prices continued to rise, he could not admit that he sold too early and did not dare to buy back at one or two times or even higher prices, leading to severe cognitive dissonance.
To alleviate this psychological conflict, he chose to criticize Bitcoin to rationalize his exit decision, describing Bitcoin as a 'bubble' and 'pyramid scheme' to lessen his feelings of regret, much like someone attacking their ex-partner after a breakup to justify their decision.
As a former early promoter and opinion leader, his 'miss' caused him to lose his voice in the circle, and buying back would mean admitting prior judgment errors, which is a huge blow to one's self-esteem.
Moreover, after he transitioned from a promoter to a critic, he gained new supporters and formed a new identity, making it harder for him to admit mistakes and change his stance.
His new identity has instead become his 'cognitive shackles'.
I think this may be a weakness of human nature, a form of self-protection mechanism. When we face significant judgment errors, we often choose to maintain our self-esteem by denying the other party instead of admitting our mistakes.
But in the investment market, there is no sentiment; the market is always right. Maintaining an open mind is more important than clinging to prejudice, and timely admitting mistakes is wiser than persisting in errors.
This is also why I have always believed that in investing, one should never blindly trust certain experts' advice; compared to ordinary people, their weaknesses are even more evident.
The more professional individuals are, the more likely they are to fall into certain cognitive biases and find it harder to admit mistakes, especially when a person publicly expresses a stance; this stance then becomes part of their identity, making the cost of changing positions extraordinarily high.
So please remember, the market is always right; dare to admit mistakes.
