The Three Dimensions of Risk: From Liquidity Illusion to Valuation Traps
Policy Black Swan: The U.S. SEC's regulatory sword hangs over cryptocurrencies, and the recent investigation into Uniswap and PancakeSwap has triggered market panic. If most altcoins are classified as "securities," liquidity will instantly freeze.
Collapse of Valuation Systems: 90% of altcoins lack real application scenarios, and their valuation relies on the "Greater Fool Theory." When the Federal Reserve restarts the interest rate hike cycle, or if Bitcoin experiences a flash crash, these assets will be the first to suffer.
Market Manipulation Ecology: Among the top 50 altcoins by market capitalization, 42% exhibit a concentration of "whale addresses" (holding over 30% of circulating tokens). Technical breakout patterns may be a common tactic used by manipulators to entice more buyers, as evidenced by the sharp declines of LUNC and FTT in 2024.
