Original title: (Will Bitcoin reach a new high this month? Market experts share their views on subsequent trends)
Original author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On May 19, Bitcoin briefly surpassed $107,000, just $2,000 away from its historical high. Ethereum hovered around $2,400, SOL around $170, and many altcoins retreated after a short-term rise. According to Coinglass data, the entire network saw liquidations of $577 million in the past 24 hours, with long liquidations totaling $351 million and short liquidations totaling $227 million, leading to liquidations on both sides in a volatile market.
The China-U.S. tariff war has temporarily paused, and the altcoin market has rebounded after bottoming out. How will the subsequent trends in the crypto market unfold?
Market predictions on Polymarket show that the probability of BTC reaching $110,000 this month is at 52%. The latest data shows this probability has risen to 52%, up from just 37% on May 17.
The prediction market also forecasts that the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $115,000 in May has risen to 20%, indicating strong bullish momentum in the market. The total transaction volume of this prediction market is about $15 million.
Trader James Wynn: The probability of Bitcoin falling below $100,000 is low.
Trader James Wynn tweeted that it would be great if BTC could pull back below $100,000 so that he could add to his position. Unfortunately, he thinks this might not happen.
Glassnode: Long positions remain relatively mild, and limited leverage suggests a healthy and sustainable market.
Glassnode tweeted that despite the significant rise in BTC prices, the funding rate for perpetual futures remains at a neutral level of about 0.007%, indicating that long positions are still relatively mild. The derivatives market seems to be catching up with the spot market, and the limited leverage suggests a healthy and sustainable trend.
Willy Woo: Bitcoin still has room for growth; expected compound annual growth rate may stabilize at 8% in 15 to 20 years.
Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo stated on social media, 'Bitcoin has long passed the stage of several times annual growth as seen in 2017. The year 2020 was a key year for Bitcoin's 'institutionalization,' as businesses and sovereign entities began hoarding Bitcoin, with the compound annual growth rate dropping from over 100% to 30-40%. Bitcoin is now being traded as the latest macro asset in 150 years, and it will continue to absorb global capital until it reaches some form of 'equilibrium.'
Considering that long-term monetary expansion is about 5% and GDP growth is 3%, I believe Bitcoin's eventual annual compound growth rate will stabilize around 8%. It may take another 15 to 20 years to reach the 'equilibrium point.' Few other publicly investable assets can match Bitcoin's long-term performance.
Grayscale Research Director: Bitcoin's market share may stabilize between 60% and 70%, rather than entering an altcoin season.
Zach Pandl, Grayscale's research director, said in an interview with Decrypt that Bitcoin's market share could stabilize in the range of 60% to 70%, rather than experiencing a significant drop. 'When the market focuses on macroeconomic instability and risks to the dollar, Bitcoin's dominance may rise, while its dominance may decline when the market pays attention to various applications of blockchain technology and innovations in the crypto space.'
CryptoQuant analyst: Current cycle short positions are being established more cautiously, usually a bullish signal.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that compared to the bull market in 2021, short sellers are being more cautious in establishing short positions during the current bull market cycle. There has only been one significant long liquidation during the pullback when Bitcoin's price reached $80,000. The analyst points out that this shift in sentiment indicates that shorts are becoming more risk-averse, which is typically seen as a bullish signal.
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