BTC Small-scale Futures Spot Divergence Micro Analysis:
After the price was pulled to 106000, when it first 'painted the door' and dropped, the spot premium rose against the trend, reflecting that retail short sellers were massively intervening to short, resulting in a large accumulation of short-term high-leverage liquidation orders above the price, which poses a risk of being countered;
Subsequently, during the second pull-up, the spot premium fell in sync, indicating that retail long positions rushed in, once again forming new high-leverage liquidation capacity below the price, laying the groundwork for downward liquidation momentum.
The violent fluctuations in Monday's morning session stemmed from the concentrated release of trading demand accumulated over the weekend's low volatility.
In the first round of pull-up triggered by institutional rebalancing or spot buying last night, there was no obvious divergence in the spot premium, showing that capital behavior was relatively unified; but during the subsequent correction, short-term futures shorts took the lead but faced liquidation, followed closely by longs who then found themselves in a deadlock.
Key observation points:
If the spot premium rises again when the price falls, it may indicate that the long-short game will continue (as seen after the fourth 'painting the door' when a new high was set); if the premium declines in tandem with the price drop, shorts may gain the upper hand in this tug-of-war between futures longs and shorts. +
Core logic: The tendency of the main funds in the spot market will become a key variable in determining the final outcome of the futures long-short battle.
