可可虾虾

Waking up, the U.S. debt market reacted to Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, with both 20-year and 30-year yields rising above 5%. U.S. stock futures fell over 1% after the market opened, and market sentiment was clearly affected.

The logic behind the recent BTC rally analyzed last night still seems reasonable. This morning, after the CME opened, Bitcoin surged again, essentially representing short-term volatility during a low liquidity period. The pre-market pullback confirms the lack of substantial positive support over the weekend (only the speech from Bessenet released expectations).

The sharp fluctuations between 4 AM and 6 AM are particularly typical, as a low liquidity environment can easily trigger a double explosion of long and short positions.

The current decline is mainly driven by Asian investors' risk aversion, and the transmission effect during the main trading hours in the U.S. is still unclear. However, historical data shows that downgrades in credit ratings typically have a short-term impact on the market.

Tonight, after the U.S. stock market opens, the long-short game may enter a truly critical phase.
#山寨季何时到来？

others.d rebounded to the middle track of the descending channel and encountered significant resistance.

Currently, Bitcoin is maintaining a strong consolidation at high levels, but the activity in the altcoin market is extremely low.

If Bitcoin's consolidation ends and continues to push higher, altcoins are likely to suffer from capital siphoning;

If Bitcoin pulls back down, altcoins will find it even harder to stand on their own, and the overall environment is unfavorable for altcoins, making it difficult for retail investors to operate.

However, the subsequent trend still needs to observe the market's choice. If the overall market pushes higher, it is expected that some altcoins may rise or show independent trends.

#美国加征关税

DOGE Dogecoin Market Review and Strategy

The small-scale chart shared on the 17th validates its effectiveness, with the parallel channel trendline strategy accurately capturing a 12% rebound market. Entering long contracts (20x leverage) at the lower boundary of the channel can yield double profits, as the rebound peak precisely touches the resistance level at the upper boundary of the channel, aligning with technical analysis expectations.

Currently, caution is needed regarding the risk of breaking below the lower boundary of the channel. If the wave operation continues, the parallel channel structure can still be referenced: the lower boundary support level serves as an entry reference for long positions, while the upper boundary resistance level acts as a profit-taking target. If the lower boundary of the channel is broken, timely stop-loss measures should be taken to exit the position.

#DOGE #美国加征关税

BTC Trend Analysis and Key Levels Yesterday, BTC ended positively, with short-term selling pressure coming from the resistance in the 106,000 - 109,000 yuan range.

The current market situation has yet to solidify, with the 100,718 level being a key threshold at the daily level:

Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks through the 106,000 - 109,000 yuan resistance area with a solid bullish candle and holds, the next target points to 114,000, and attention should be paid to the pressure performance at this position;

Pullback Verification: If the daily close is below 100,718, the effectiveness of the 98,622 - 94,595 support range needs to be observed, and after stabilizing, it may brew a new round of upward movement;

Deep Adjustment Risk: If the above support is broken, the 91,652 - 90,479 area (pink box) constitutes ultimate support, and rebound confirmation opportunities can be sought in this range.

Operational Logic: Focus on the daily close's breakthrough direction of 100,718; resistance breakthroughs require volume support, while pullback support needs confirmation of stabilization signals.

#BTC挑战11万大关
#美国加征关税

Ethereum (ETH) Market Analysis: 24-hour Increase Exceeds 2.5%, Bullish Flag Structure Supports Optimistic Expectations

ETH price rebounded today, rising over 2.5% in the past 24 hours, with the current trading price at $2536, up from a low of $2440 yesterday to an intraday high of $2551, marking a range increase of 4.5%. Market optimism is on the rise, with some views suggesting that ETH could reach $3000 in May, as technical signals serve as primary support.

Market Dynamics and Liquidation Data

Leverage Clean-up🚨: On May 19, the crypto market experienced large-scale liquidations, with over $158 million in positions liquidated within 24 hours, of which $95 million were long positions, indicating intense short-term speculative battles;
Short Squeeze🚨: ETH short liquidations reached $22.25 million, with an additional $7.5 million in the last hour, suggesting that shorts are actively reducing positions during the decline.

Technical Analysis: Bullish Flag Structure Intact
Pattern Confirmation: 🚨On the four-hour chart, ETH price remains within the "bullish flag" pattern, which typically appears after a significant rise followed by a downward consolidation, serving as a classic bullish continuation signal;
Key Levels: 🚨On May 13, the price broke above the $2550 upward trend line, confirming the pattern's validity; currently testing the flag's upper boundary (at $2470), forming strong short-term support;
Target Outlook: 🚨If the daily close stabilizes above $2470, a recovery in the upward trend is expected, with the bullish flag technical target pointing towards $3720 (a 50% increase from the current price).

Trend Outlook and Risk Warning

The market believes that the recent decline is a technical correction aimed at testing key support levels, and after completing the turnover of holdings, the upward trend may resume.
However, caution is advised for short-term volatility risks; if the support at $2470 is breached, it may trigger further corrections. The current pattern still supports a bullish logic in the medium to long term, and investors should pay attention to the daily closing situation to confirm the trend.

#山寨季何时到来？ #ETH

BTC Small-scale Futures Spot Divergence Micro Analysis:

After the price was pulled to 106000, when it first 'painted the door' and dropped, the spot premium rose against the trend, reflecting that retail short sellers were massively intervening to short, resulting in a large accumulation of short-term high-leverage liquidation orders above the price, which poses a risk of being countered;

Subsequently, during the second pull-up, the spot premium fell in sync, indicating that retail long positions rushed in, once again forming new high-leverage liquidation capacity below the price, laying the groundwork for downward liquidation momentum.

The violent fluctuations in Monday's morning session stemmed from the concentrated release of trading demand accumulated over the weekend's low volatility.

In the first round of pull-up triggered by institutional rebalancing or spot buying last night, there was no obvious divergence in the spot premium, showing that capital behavior was relatively unified; but during the subsequent correction, short-term futures shorts took the lead but faced liquidation, followed closely by longs who then found themselves in a deadlock.

Key observation points:
If the spot premium rises again when the price falls, it may indicate that the long-short game will continue (as seen after the fourth 'painting the door' when a new high was set); if the premium declines in tandem with the price drop, shorts may gain the upper hand in this tug-of-war between futures longs and shorts. +

Core logic: The tendency of the main funds in the spot market will become a key variable in determining the final outcome of the futures long-short battle.

#BTC挑战11万大关 #美国加征关税

First, let's look at Bitcoin. The trend remains volatile and upward, and the support at 100,000 has been verified. Based on the current structure, if it does not fall below 100,000 in the short term, the probability of breaking the historical high is very high.

Once it breaks through, Bitcoin is likely to rise to the 120,000 - 130,000 range, and only then may we see a significant adjustment. If it falls below 100,000 in the short term, risk should be monitored.

#美国加征关税

Today's BTC trend looks healthy, which triggers the impulse to enter long positions, but the bullish and bearish indicators have not yet unified, so Brother Niu chooses to remain on the sidelines until the market becomes clearer.

From the candlestick pattern, there is a possibility of hitting new highs in the short term (with limited amplitude).

If the price retraces to the 1035-1040 range, the plan is to enter long positions, set a stop loss at 1025, and the first take profit target at 1058.

#美国加征关税

BTC Market Analysis: Bitcoin briefly broke through the 107,000 mark early this morning before quickly retreating. This trend may be an active behavior to clear liquidity above — previous analyses and the liquidation map have hinted at such patterns (see previous articles).

From a technical perspective, although the price briefly touched around 107,100, the key resistance levels at the four-hour and daily levels were not effectively broken, and a 'false breakout' scenario cannot be ruled out. The main force may be using the upward movement to create market expectations of a 'bull return' or 'new highs,' while in fact completing the harvesting of liquidity for short positions above.

The current market has returned to the consolidation range, and two major risk points must be closely monitored:

Lower range testing: will it retest the support range of 101,500-100,500; breakout risk: beware of a price drop below the lower boundary of the consolidation range that could trigger a trend reversal.

#美国加征关税

Today, Bitcoin has retreated to around 104800 after a surge.

Sustained increases without pullbacks lack sustainability, and lower-level movements indicate there is still a demand for pullbacks. You can pay attention to the range of 104500-104000 to gradually accumulate long positions (initial and supplementary positions).

This area is the first take-profit level from the previous trade, and the prior resistance has turned into current support, which is expected to have strong support effectiveness. If successful in accumulating longs, the target price can be set at 110,000.

#BTC挑战11万大关 #美国加征关税

The following are three highly practical profit-taking strategies designed for secondary and MEME trading beginners. It is recommended to save and strictly follow the discipline:

1. Gradual Investment Profit-Taking Method
Core Logic: By selling in batches at regular intervals, avoid timing risks and lock in profits.
Key Points: Set a fixed period (e.g., weekly/monthly), sell a fixed amount each time (e.g., $1000), without the need to monitor the market. Use DEX/CEX automation tools to execute, isolating emotional interference—preventing both greedy prolonged holdings and panic selling.
Applicable Scenarios: Beginners with limited time or medium-to-long-term layouts with dispersed holdings.

2. Tiered Decrease Position Reduction Method
Core Logic: Realize profits in a tiered manner as prices rise, balancing risk and profit space.
Key Points:
Set profit-taking targets based on price increases (e.g., 50%, 100%, 300%), sell a fixed percentage (e.g., 25%, 50%) each time a target is reached.
Example: Sell 25% of the position when the price rises by 50%, then sell 50% when it triples, keeping the remaining position to aim for higher profits.
Advantages: Reduces holding risk in stages; even if prices fall, part of the profit is already locked in; retains a core position to capture excess profits, avoiding complete loss.

3. MEME Coin Dual Position Profit-Taking Strategy
Core Logic: Aimed at the extreme volatility characteristics of MEME coins, split positions to achieve a balance between "locking in profits" and "holding positions for speculation."
Position Planning:
Main Position 70%: Used for tiered profit-taking, gradually realizing profits; Core Position 30%: Never increase the position, do not sell under non-extreme conditions, can withstand going to zero, can ride the wave in case of a surge.
Profit-Taking Rules: Sell 20% of the remaining main position for every 40%-50% increase; Stop-Loss Protection: If the price falls 35% from the peak (or drops 30% below the previous high), immediately liquidate the remaining part of the main position, keeping the core position unchanged.

Key Discipline: Strictly lock the core position to avoid emotional chasing and panic selling.
Summary: All three strategies emphasize "anti-human nature" operations—by executing rules and tools, trading behavior shifts from emotion-driven to strategy-driven, especially suitable for beginners to establish a sustainable profit model in a highly volatile market.

#稳定币日常支付 #币安Alpha上新

The current market presents potential "torn" characteristics: from CPI to the latest PPI and retail data, foreign media continue to release optimistic expectations of "stable economy, mild inflation, and favorable interest rate cuts".

But it is worth noting that public opinion generally avoids two key risks:

Possible data distortion: The mild performance of CPI and PPI may be due to the lag in the transmission effect of tariffs, rather than the cooling of real inflation;

Stagflation concerns intensify: The weak PPI and retail data and the decline in demand for the service industry are accumulating stagflation risks. At the same time, the 10-year US Treasury yield hovers at 4.5%, and the 30-year yield soars to 5%, and the bond market risks are looming.

Is market public opinion trapped in the "political correctness" vicious circle? -- By rendering "economic resilience" to maintain sentiment and guide retail investors to take on high risk exposure in US stocks? Judging from the current market trend, funds do not seem to buy into this narrative.

#加密圆桌会议要点 #稳定币日常支付

The market generally expects the BTC bulls to be optimistic up to $150,000. This article provides a differentiated perspective: the current market trend shows similarities to the 2021 trajectory, exhibiting the cyclical characteristic of 'deep correction after a historical high followed by a new high' (as illustrated).

Based on this pattern, it is recommended to execute liquidation when the price reaches a historical high. The strategy of buying the dip remains effective at this stage, and subsequent adjustments should be made in conjunction with real-time market trends.

#币安Alpha上新

Observing the BTC small-scale K-line chart, the price broke through the EMA moving average in the early morning and entered a sustained strengthening mode, with multiple dips quickly recovered by long lower shadows, indicating a solid support structure below. Although the daytime market shows a trend of oscillating downward, it falls within the normal range of technical corrections.

Currently, the big coin price is around 1035. Based on the relationship between volume and price, it is expected that after dipping to the 1034-1035 range, a rebound trend will be triggered.

Investors do not need to panic excessively — the market often initiates a new round of trending movements after washing out most of the follow-up positions.
#CPI数据来袭

Yesterday, the US released the April PPI data, with market expectations at 2.5%, but the actual recorded value was 2.4%, lower than the previous value of 2.7%, indicating a further slowdown in price increase momentum.

Additionally, the retail data for April only grew by 0.1%, far below expectations, reflecting a significant cooling in consumer spending willingness.

Why has the easing of price pressures led to weak consumption? The core issue lies in the "running ahead effect": Trump's tariff policy has not yet taken effect, but the market is already worried about rising prices of imported goods, causing some consumers to stock up in advance, overstretching their purchasing power, which results in current weak consumer demand.

The contraction in consumer spending transmits upstream, leading to low price increase willingness among merchants, with production and wholesale sectors weakening simultaneously, collectively depressing PPI data.

The combination of data highlights the deep contradictions in the US economy:

Inflation pressures have not completely dissipated, while deflation risks have begun to emerge.

On one hand, price stickiness is hard to eliminate; on the other hand, there are concerns about economic cooling. Meanwhile, Trump's intention to exert economic pressure to force the Fed to lower interest rates has not yet shaken Powell's policy resolve. Balancing multiple risks is currently testing the coordination wisdom of US monetary and fiscal policies.

#稳定币日常支付

SOL Night Market Commentary:

Weak rebound tests support, short-term bullish and bearish look at key price levels. SOL saw a rebound last night but the strength was insufficient, falling back to the first support level before a slight recovery.

Today's key focus is $170.9 — if this position holds on the 1-2 hour level, there is still potential for an upward move after a pullback. The upper resistance levels are $173.6, $178.3, and $181.7.

If the 4-hour level breaks below $170.9, the 1-2 hour rebound may end, and the lower support levels to watch are $168.9, $166.5, and $164.3.

#CPI数据来袭

BNB Night Trend Analysis: After breaking through resistance, it tested support, and the bullish-bearish dividing point is clear. BNB broke through the first resistance level last night and retraced to the white moving average, rebounding after the support level held. Today, the key focus should be on $653 — if it holds at the 4-hour level, a retracement may still lead to an upward attack, with upper resistance levels at $661.6, $671.8, and $681.5.

If it breaks below $653 at the 4-hour level, this round of upward movement may temporarily come to an end, with lower support levels at $644.4, $637.8, and $631.3.

#币安Alpha上新

ETH Night Trend Analysis:

Resistance level encountered a setback and the key support level became the boundary between bulls and bears. ETH accurately touched the first resistance level last night before retreating and finding support around 2520 USD for a rebound.

Today, focus on 2550 USD — if it holds at this level for 1-2 hours, there is still upward momentum after a pullback. The resistance levels above are 2597 USD, 2635 USD, and 2677 USD, respectively.

If it falls below 2550 USD for 1-2 hours, this round of increase may temporarily end, with support levels at 2515 USD, 2475 USD, and 2415 USD.

#币安Alpha上新

BTC Evening Trend Analysis: Key Levels Determine Bullish or Bearish Direction. Last night, BTC's main players aligned with market sentiment, rising to the first resistance level before pulling back to the white moving average. As this support level was not breached, the upward trend continued, and it once again tested the resistance level.

Today, special attention should be paid to $103,170 — if the 4-hour level holds this position, we can expect further upward movement after a minor pullback, with subsequent resistance levels at $104,870, $105,860, and $107,065.

If the 4-hour level falls below $103,170, this round of upward movement may come to a pause, with support levels at $102,340, $101,460, and $100,670.

#CPI数据来袭

Midday Market Analysis: Pay attention to the breakthrough of previous highs for a rebound! Good afternoon everyone! The market welcomed a rebound last night, with considerable strength, basically reaching the first resistance level.

It is worth noting that some investors are hesitant to enter the market to go long when the market drops to support levels, but chase high prices when it rises; their trading mentality needs adjustment. Last night's live broadcast timely advised against chasing shorts and suggested "increased issuance of U is a positive signal," helping to avoid potential risks.

From the market perspective, this decline did not break the previous low of 1007 (BTC), indicating effective support below. If new lows are not formed, the market is likely entering a rebound cycle, with short-term targets looking towards the previous high of the last wave.

It must be clear that only continuous breakthroughs of previous highs can sustain the upward trend; if there are obstacles, one must be cautious of fluctuations.

Today is Friday, and it is important to pay attention to market fluctuations in the evening (usually, Friday nights to weekends are prone to change windows). If there are no violent fluctuations tonight, the weekend may enter a sideways consolidation.

The short-term key resistance levels for BTC are $1048 and the previous high of $1058, whether it can break through depends on the direction of the main capital. It is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see approach rather than subjective predictions.

Operational Advice: If the support level stabilizes, you can gradually position yourself, and be cautious about chasing prices near resistance levels, focusing on short-term waves while avoiding excessive speculation on the market.