Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl pointed out in an interview with Decrypt that Bitcoin's market share (Bitcoin Dominance) may stabilize in the range of 60% to 70%, rather than a sharp decline as the market expects, which would trigger an "altcoin season." Meanwhile, the rise of Solana's ecosystem is quietly changing the market landscape, with institutional accumulation, an influx of developers, and impressive on-chain data.
Bitcoin Market Share: Steady or Turning Point?
Data shows that as of May 17, 2025, Bitcoin's market share was approximately 60.4%, a decline from the peak of 64.4% on May 8. Zach Pandl analyzed that changes in Bitcoin's market share are closely related to market focus: when investors concentrate on macroeconomic instability and dollar risks, Bitcoin's attributes as a "non-sovereign asset" drive its market share up; conversely, when market enthusiasm shifts towards blockchain technology's application innovations, the attractiveness of altcoins increases, leading to a decline in Bitcoin's market share.
Bitwise senior investment strategist Juan Leon further pointed out that the recent decline in Bitcoin's market share reflects an increase in investor risk appetite. President Trump announced a 90-day suspension of tariffs, coupled with easing inflation pressures, reducing market concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy, and increasing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. A low-interest-rate environment typically benefits risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, driving funds toward altcoins. Leon emphasized, "The decline in Bitcoin's market share is not a crash, but a response from the market to technological innovation and diversified investment opportunities."
Coin Bureau co-founder Nic Puckrin poured cold water on the situation in a post on the X platform, stating that the current spot trading volume in the altcoin market is far below the levels seen in January 2025 and March 2024, let alone the explosive scenes of the 2021 altcoin season. He bluntly stated, "There is still a long way to go before a true altcoin season." This judgment aligns with on-chain data: although trading activity for altcoins has seen some recovery, overall liquidity has not yet reached historical highs, and market sentiment has not fully shifted to euphoria.
Solana Ecosystem: Under Currents Before the Altcoin Season
Although the altcoin season has not yet arrived, the strong performance of the Solana (SOL) ecosystem cannot be ignored. DeFi Development Corp (formerly Janover) recently disclosed that its SOL holdings have exceeded $100 million and acquired a Solana validator node, managing approximately 500 million SOL (around $75 million) in delegated staking. SOL Strategies has also increased its holdings by over 120,000 SOL in the past week, indicating institutional confidence in Solana's long-term prospects.
On-chain data further supports Solana's appeal. According to DeFi Llama, Solana's total value locked (TVL) in DeFi has climbed to $9.34 billion, approaching the historical peak of $11.8 billion in 2021. The stablecoin market size has surpassed $13 billion, demonstrating its core position in the DeFi space. A Coinbase report noted that institutional funds are accelerating into Solana, partly due to its low-cost and high-throughput blockchain characteristics attracting institutional projects.
Even more noteworthy is Solana's developer ecosystem. According to Electric Capital data, the number of new developers on the Solana chain in Q1 2025 increased by 83% year-on-year, surpassing Ethereum for the first time. 65% of SOL has been staked, and open interest is also steadily rising. The news of Alchemy acquiring Solana development company DexterLab further confirms the optimistic outlook of enterprises towards Solana's development potential, aiming to accelerate the development of Web3 applications.
Market Outlook: A Game of Balance
Despite the booming Solana ecosystem, the market is not one-sided. Grayscale pointed out in its Q1 2025 report that Ethereum, with its robust ecosystem and successful ETFs, remains the dominant player in the DeFi market. High-performance Layer-1 networks such as Solana and Sui have shown outstanding performance, but still lag behind Ethereum in market share and developer retention.
Meanwhile, the macro narrative surrounding Bitcoin remains strong. The mayor of Panama City recently announced the acceptance of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for payment and plans to launch Bitcoin reserves, following El Salvador's example, further solidifying Bitcoin's status as a safe-haven asset. Trump's pro-crypto policies not only benefit Bitcoin but also create a favorable environment for mainstream altcoins like Solana.
Conclusion: Observe Calmly and Act When the Time is Right
The current cryptocurrency market is at a delicate balance point between Bitcoin dominance and the rise of altcoins. Zach Pandl's prediction suggests that the stability of Bitcoin's market share may indicate the market is entering a consolidation phase, rather than immediately welcoming an altcoin season. Solana's ecosystem vitality undoubtedly injects confidence into altcoins, but insufficient liquidity and historical data indicate that a true altcoin season still needs time to brew.
For investors, it is crucial to closely monitor macroeconomic signals (such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions) and on-chain data (such as Solana's TVL and developer growth) in the short term. The institutional accumulation and developer enthusiasm for Solana may be a prelude to an altcoin season, but as Puckrin stated, market euphoria has not yet ignited. A calm observation and precise layout may be the wisest choice at the moment.
This article represents the author's personal views and does not reflect the position or views of this platform. This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute investment advice for anyone.
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