On Monday (May 19), the US dollar index fell to 100.81, gold rose to 3246 dollars, and Bitcoin rebounded to around 106600 dollars after a deep drop. The panic from the US trade war has returned, and Trump criticized Walmart for raising prices due to tariffs.
First, I say BTC is short-term topping, and the short position at 106200 has been arranged. The reasons are as follows:
1. False breakout of the previous high, with a long shadow on top.
2. This time, the breakthrough of the previous high is slightly more than before, indicating weak bullish strength.
I also hope this round of the bull market is not a rebound B wave, but a new round of 'altcoin season.' Whether it's a new round of 'altcoin season' or a market driven by a rebound B wave, this bullish trend is worth participating in. However, being prepared for the 'worst-case scenario' is a rational mindset every trader should have.
Last night, ETH suddenly dropped sharply, reaching the target of 2343 precisely, as I clearly stated during the Saturday update (Trump is causing a stir! Bitcoin plunged, altcoins corrected! Musk's KEKIUS surged by 80%, GORK crashed? 'Air coin' B skyrocketed by 20 million, is it still possible to buy the dip?).
Currently, many altcoins that just started a new wave of upward trends yesterday have suddenly collapsed, making it increasingly difficult to judge the following market. Currently, there is still a large amount of short liquidity accumulated in the BTC range of 106000—109000 and the ETH range of 2730—2875, which is likely to be squeezed out in the subsequent market.
However, there is a severe divergence between BTC and ETH indicators, and a strong rise is needed to digest the divergence to continue the bullish market. Of course, this is not impossible. If the rise is merely to clear out short liquidity, will altcoins continue to follow the trend? Or will they form a false breakout together? Some weaker altcoins just make a secondary high? The answers to these questions are currently unknown.
If this is a brand new bull market, altcoins should experience the strongest surge in the next 1-2 weeks, as indicated by the yellow line in the chart; if the market is about to come to an end, the trend may resemble the blue line in the chart.
I plan to gradually take profits and adjust the remaining position to a breakeven stop-loss. Whether in futures long or spot trading, strict stop-loss is crucial. When the market comes, be bold to enter; when the market is gone, decisively exit without hesitation.
The bull market has ended, and now it is a bear market. When the bear market ends, a new round of upward cycles will begin. Go long in an uptrend and short in a downtrend. The market goes in cycles, and there will always be trading opportunities.
Good news: GASS has tripled!
Bad news: My group friend got washed out!
GasspasCat really washed out most retail investors before starting to break the previous high. I entered at a market value of around 1 million, which fell to 400,000, and many retail investors believe the project is dead.
Many retail investors sell at the lowest point due to the psychological pressure of being all-in, and the market makers exploit this psychology. The reason I didn't sell is twofold:
1. After experiencing ATO washing, I became patient; as long as the narrative is sustainable, I can stay on board and wait it out with the market makers.
2. With no pressure on my investment capital, I adopt a strategy of risking a little for a lot, and the impact of a zero position is not significant.
Brothers trading coins must learn to think in reverse; actions that go against human nature are the most rational. If you don't understand, take a good look at the content I shared.
Today's recommended password: $FIDA
Reason: The short-term risk may lead to a descending triangle; if it cannot break the resistance, it will drop directly. I lean towards a box consolidation, waiting to enter after a pullback. Also, the bottom is transitioning from low volume to high volume, making the descending triangle scenario less likely, but one should still be prepared for it.
Entry price: 0.12
Stop-loss price: 0.1005
Target price: 3.8
Expected increase: 3066%
