Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On May 19, Bitcoin briefly broke through $107,000, just $2,000 away from its historical high. Ethereum lingered around $2,400, SOL hovered around $170, and various altcoins fell back after a brief rise.
According to coinglass data, the total network liquidations in 24 hours reached $577 million, with long positions liquidated at $351 million and short positions at $227 million, resulting in both long and short liquidations in a volatile market.
The China-US tariff war has temporarily paused, and the altcoin market has rebounded after hitting bottom. How will the cryptocurrency market evolve next?
Polymarket shows a 52% chance of BTC reaching $110,000 this month.
Latest data shows that the market on Polymarket predicts a 52% chance of BTC reaching $110,000 this month, while this data was only 37% on May 17.
The prediction market also forecasts a 20% chance of Bitcoin exceeding $115,000 in May, indicating strong bullish momentum in the market. Currently, the total trading volume of this prediction market is about $15 million.
Trader James Wynn: The probability of Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 is low.
Trader James Wynn tweeted that it would be great if BTC could pull back below $100,000, then he could increase his position. Unfortunately, I feel this may not happen.
Glassnode: Long positions remain relatively mild, and limited leverage suggests a healthy and sustainable market.
Glassnode tweeted that despite the significant rise in BTC prices, the funding rate for perpetual futures remains at a neutral level of about 0.007%, indicating that long positions are still relatively mild. The derivatives market seems to be catching up to the spot market, and limited leverage suggests a healthy and sustainable trend.
Willy Woo: Bitcoin still has room to rise, and the annual compound growth rate is expected to stabilize at 8% in 15 to 20 years.
Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo stated on social media, 'Bitcoin has long passed the stage of multiple annual increases seen in 2017. The year 2020 was a key year for Bitcoin to achieve 'institutionalization', as corporations and sovereign entities began accumulating Bitcoin, with the annual compound growth rate dropping from over 100% to 30% to 40%. Bitcoin is now traded as the latest macro asset in 150 years, and it will continue to absorb global capital until it reaches some kind of 'equilibrium point.'
Considering that long-term monetary expansion is about 5%, GDP growth is 3%, I believe Bitcoin's eventual annual compound growth rate will stabilize around 8%. It may take another 15 to 20 years to reach the 'equilibrium point'. There are hardly any other publicly investable assets that can match Bitcoin's long-term performance.
Grayscale head of research: Bitcoin's market share may stabilize in the range of 60% to 70%, rather than entering an altcoin season.
Zach Pandl, head of research at cryptocurrency asset management firm Grayscale, said in an interview with Decrypt that Bitcoin's market share may stabilize in the range of 60% to 70%, rather than experiencing a significant decline. 'When the market focuses on macroeconomic instability and the risks to the dollar, Bitcoin's dominance may rise, while when the market focuses on various applications of blockchain technology and innovations in the crypto space, Bitcoin's dominance may decline.'
CryptoQuant analyst: Current cycle short positions are more cautious, usually a bullish signal.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that compared to the bull market in 2021, short traders are more cautious when establishing short positions in the current bull market cycle. There was only one significant liquidation of long positions during the pullback when Bitcoin prices reached $80,000. Analysts point out that this shift in sentiment indicates that shorts are becoming more risk-averse, which is often seen as a bullish signal.
