Determining how far the bull market has progressed involves several clear signals:
When Bitcoin breaks above the 120-day moving average and continues to rise for over a month, this usually marks the beginning of a bull market. It's like a train just starting; there's still time to hop on.
When smaller coins start to go crazy, like Dogecoin and Pepe coin, rising over 5 times, it indicates that the market is heating up and may have entered the mid-stage of a bull market. At this point, the profit effect is obvious, but the risks are also increasing.
If mainstream altcoins, like exchange platform tokens, have risen 10 times, caution is warranted, as this often signals the late stage of a bull market. The market may be overheating and could change direction at any moment.
Another key indicator is the borrowing interest rate on exchanges. If the funding rate remains above 10% for an extended period, or occasionally spikes to 20%-50%, it indicates that market leverage is very high, and volatility will become extremely intense. A pullback at this time could lead to many people getting liquidated.
The volatility in 2025 will be more exaggerated than before. A 5% daily fluctuation in Bitcoin will become the norm, and altcoins could easily see fluctuations of 10%-20%. Even if Bitcoin rises to $150,000, some altcoins may not have started yet; they often surge crazily in the last month of a bull market, but it's difficult for ordinary people to accurately time their exit.
Don’t fantasize about riding the wave from start to finish; most people will hesitate to sell during rises and panic-sell during falls, ultimately being lucky to average a 100% profit. Returns of 10 times or 20 times belong only to a very few.
Some say this is the "eternal bull market," but I think that's unlikely. The U.S. has introduced so many Bitcoin ETFs and derivatives, essentially allowing institutions to better harvest profits. Bitcoin will become the most volatile asset in U.S. stocks, with 24-hour trading and easy long and short positions, destined to be a playground for capital games.
Market expectations are now fully realized, just waiting for the final climax. The remaining time may not exceed 5 months, so cherish it as you go.
For the upcoming layout direction, I will guide everyone to aim for lucrative opportunities in altcoins, with an expected growth space of over 10 times being quite feasible. Like and comment to join me in planning throughout the bull market!
