From the weekly perspective, Bitcoin closed at $106,500, showing strong performance, seemingly indicating that the probability of an increase is greater than a false breakout. However, after the weekly close, it quickly fell below the critical $105,000 support-resistance switch, a level that has previously failed to break through several times. This brings uncertainty, especially in the current Wall Street-dominated market; we need to observe Bitcoin’s performance with volume after the opening of the U.S. stock market to assess its true direction.
Short-term price trend with a double kill of bulls and bears
In the 4-hour and 1-hour charts, Bitcoin shows significant fluctuations, exhibiting the characteristics of a 'washout' of both bulls and bears. Last night, it briefly broke through $105,000, but quickly retreated, raising suspicions of a false breakout. This repeated washout exploits low trading volume over the weekend to flush both sides out of the market.
Above $105,800 (previous false breakout range), the bullish probability increases; if it falls below $104,500, it will confirm a complete false breakout, potentially triggering a significant sell-off, leading to a bloodbath in the market. The direction will need to wait until tonight's Wall Street opening, and further confirmation will come after the close at 8 AM tomorrow, East 8 timezone.
