This year's bull market may be postponed until autumn, the Federal Reserve's attitude has taken a major turn: Powell clearly stated 'no rate cut in June', interest rate market expectations have returned to zero, and there may only be a 55 basis point rate cut for the whole year. Trump's tariffs + dual credit rating blow: a 145% tariff increase on China has been implemented, Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign rating to Aa1, and the 2011 U.S. bond crisis warning has reappeared with the market at its high 'resurrection': the S&P 500 Buffett indicator has reached 190%, exceeding historical peaks, with gold, U.S. stocks, and other risk assets collectively 'fluctuating'.