The situation with U.S. Treasuries really feels like the "last straw" has fallen.

Let's start with some hard facts: Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign rating from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16. Don't underestimate this downgrade—since 1917, U.S. Treasuries have rarely dropped from the AAA rating and have always been considered the "safest in the market." The last incident was with Standard & Poor's in 2011, and now the three major agencies have finally come together to declare: U.S. Treasuries are no longer a risk-free asset.

But don’t expect an explosion tomorrow. Short-term prices will probably remain similar to now, as traders focus on sentiment and liquidity; those who truly care about the rating are the "long money"—central banks, sovereign funds, and pension funds. These big players used to treat U.S. Treasuries as a cash substitute, but now they need to recalculate: interest expenses are soaring, deficits are skyrocketing, nominal debt is at $36 trillion... the risk premium will definitely need to be repriced.

This will lead to several slow-motion changes:

In the Middle East and Southeast Asia, the pace of establishing local currency settlements and regional clearing systems will only accelerate.

Sovereign wealth funds' asset allocation will add a phrase: "Increase the weight of non-U.S. dollar assets like gold and Bitcoin."

Hedging strategies will also change—duration will shorten, with more money market funds and short-term bonds to replace the original "all-in on government bonds."

So don’t be fooled by the superficial "the market hasn’t dropped"—the structure is already turning. Interest rates may remain similar to before, but the consensus that "U.S. Treasuries = risk-free" is loosening, and it’s hard to say who will be the new anchor—gold, BTC, or even a basket of regional bonds could all step into the spotlight.

Thus, leave a reminder for yourself and give a heads-up to friends who are paying attention to global allocation: the anchor is loose, don’t think you're still securely tied in place.