What does this really mean?
In the past week, in the first half of May 2025, Bitcoin ETFs in the USA have purchased over 26,700 BTC, while the number of newly mined Bitcoin is only about 7,200 BTC. This not only shows a serious supply-demand imbalance but also reflects profound changes in the market's treatment of Bitcoin.
The maturation of Bitcoin in the eyes of traditional finance as BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark Invest, and Franklin Templeton successively ramp up BTC purchases through spot ETFs (direct investment funds), is not simply a matter of following trends as people think. They view BTC as a valuable asset at this moment.
ETFs are familiar and reliable investment tools for institutional investors, thanks to their transparency, strict regulation, and easy integration into a portfolio like a stock. When Bitcoin is packaged within an ETF framework, it is no longer an inaccessible or overly risky asset, but rather becomes a legitimate, safer option, thereby opening the door for institutional capital to flow into a market previously seen as worthless in form.
Demand far exceeds supply, the effect after Halving. Only 7,200 BTC were created from mining in the first 15 days of May. But ETFs collected over 26,700 BTC. Where will that gap go if it continues in the coming months (will prices rise sharply)? The Halving event in April 2024 reduced the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, choking off new supply. Meanwhile, institutional investment demand has surged, especially after ETFs received approval from the SEC earlier this year. The consequence is that Bitcoin's price has broken through the $100,000 threshold, and many predictions suggest that $200,000 is not at all fanciful if this trend continues.
Additionally, there are new businesses accepting Bitcoin in 2025.
1. Steak 'n Shake (USA) From May 16, 2025, becomes the first fast food chain in the USA to accept Bitcoin at all locations.
2. Lomond School (Scotland) April 2025 The first boarding school in the UK to allow tuition payments in BTC.
3. Black Iris Social Club (USA) From 2/2025 An art club in Virginia accepts BTC for membership fees and events.
4. City of Detroit (USA) Announced in March, implementation in mid-2025 Will accept tax and public fees paid in Bitcoin through PayPal.
5. Pubkey Bar- Washington, D.C. May 2025 A bar integrating technology that accepts BTC. Noteworthy when Mr. Trump paid for a burger with Bitcoin here.
But is everything too good to be true? Does the current price of Bitcoin reflect its true value or is it just a result of money pumping from ETFs?
Rising interest rates or declining securities, ETFs reverse ETFs are also financial products affected by macroeconomic factors, for example: If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, investors may pull money out of risky assets (like Bitcoin) to move into safer bonds with higher yields. If the US stock market declines sharply (like in 2022), ETFs may face mass withdrawals to pay investors, forcing them to sell BTC, putting downward pressure on prices.
The US Congress or regulatory agencies may enact laws: Tighten taxes on profits from crypto. Require transparency of funding sources or limit ownership of BTC to a large extent. Control exchanges or mining activities. If there are sudden changes in policy, institutions may have to adjust or reduce BTC holdings to comply, applying downward pressure on prices.
And the nature of Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset, lacking a stable cash flow from the real economy like gold or bonds.
