$DOGE Brief Analysis (2025-05-17)

The current DOGE structure maintains a standard bearish rhythm, with the 45-minute chart continuing to decline, and the rebound stopping at the previous BOS area,

the bearish dominance has not loosened. Although there was a brief CHoCH on the 15-minute chart, it has not formed a continuation of HH, and the rebound seems more like a trap for bulls.

On-chain data shows:

Contract holdings have significantly decreased by -7.76%, and trading volume has shrunk drastically (-32.61%), with a noticeable cooling of interest;

The long-short ratio is extremely biased towards longs, with retail at 3.28 and large holders even at 4.18, indicating the market is still blindly trying to catch the bottom;

Liquidations are highly concentrated on longs: $7.98 million in long liquidations in 24 hours, while shorts only saw $890,000, indicating that the main players are still harvesting.

📈 Highlights in options data:

DOGE options open interest +291.86%, trading volume +177.15%,

This indicates that a large amount of capital is positioning itself in advance through options tools—but considering the structure and liquidation data, it is more likely used for hedging or "speculating on a rebound to escape," rather than a genuine bullish outlook.

🔍 Conclusion:

The current situation for DOGE is "structural bearishness not broken + severe emotional mismatch + options volatility warning." If it cannot stabilize in the 0.220–0.224 area, any rebound should be regarded as a bull trap, with a bearish outlook prioritized.