Author: cyclop
Translation: Tim, PANews
These are the clearest bull market signals I've seen in my seven years in the crypto market:
BTC is close to its historical high
Retail interest is near historical lows
ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks out of a three-year downtrend
Altcoin index rebounds from range lows
Every single factor has previously triggered an altcoin season. Now they are all present, creating resonance.
Is this really the beginning of the next altcoin season?
I can hardly believe I’m saying this, but I truly think we are finally about to witness a surge in altcoins.
In this lengthy thread, I will provide a detailed analysis:
How the market mentality has shifted and why it is bullish
What changes have occurred that ultimately made the altcoin season a reality?
Important future catalysts
Main indicators and their signaling
Which altcoins might surge?
How to build a suitable altcoin season portfolio
How to research projects that are difficult to implement
I have been in the cryptocurrency space for seven years and have witnessed dozens of market structures that triggered altcoin seasons.
Yes, there have indeed been some changes in the cycle; I have detailed the process and reasons for the changes in the quoted post.
However, I believe we are at the beginning of a more sustained altcoin season, and this trend does not require Bitcoin's price to soar to $150,000 to be supported.
The narrative surrounding BTC has undergone a fundamental shift, from being viewed as a Ponzi scheme to: a top investment target for macro hedging, the sixth largest asset by market cap (and recognized by S&P), a hedge against inflation, and a primary countermeasure for isolated or high-inflation countries.
An increase in Bitcoin from its current position is no longer a necessary condition for the altcoin season to start.
The magnitude of Bitcoin's surge (in percentage terms) will shrink, as will its crashes. As market cap expands, its price volatility will become proportional. Each year, Bitcoin's trend as a value storage asset becomes more evident, rather than a speculative asset.
This is where the 'value' of altcoins lies.
High market cap altcoins, especially blockchain projects, are no longer seen as 'alternatives to Bitcoin.' They are now viewed as tech companies operating within a broader Bitcoin ecosystem. Ethereum is like Nvidia, Solana like high-performance infrastructure, and so on.
This shift in perception has occurred in past market cycles, each time marking the start of the altcoin season. Now, let's talk about what actual changes happened that ultimately made the altcoin season possible.
After the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum surged, breaking a three-year downtrend in ETH/BTC. Every skeptic turned into a believer. Bitcoin's dominance just experienced the most severe three-day drop since November 2024. The sentiment in the altcoin market has plummeted, and even after this small rally, retail participation remains at historical lows. In my view, the Pectra upgrade changed the game. It also addressed the biggest obstacle facing the Ethereum-driven altcoin season boom: issues at the user interface and user experience levels.
Retail index
Despite being widely adopted, the retail index is currently near historical lows. This factor has historically played a key role in the early stages of past altcoin seasons. Now, it is once again a positive signal. Let me elaborate:
It is important to understand a simple truth: assets peak when they are in absolute best condition and bottom when in despair. Altcoins are still in deep trouble, but from this moment on, the only way is to climb against the trend and rebound from the bottom.
Catalysts for the rise of Ethereum and other altcoins? There are many. Triggers for declines? Zero; the market is extremely bearish. Even after doubling from the bottom, the retail index is still absent or underperforming. We have finally reached a moment where even if altcoins have risen fourfold, it still seems possible to rise another tenfold.
ETH/BTC Chart
ETH/BTC has been in a downtrend for five months, which has negatively affected ETH. Its price and attention have both declined, making it harder for altcoins to rise. After breaking through key resistance, Ethereum’s price skyrocketed, sending a strong signal for altcoin increases.
Now let’s take a look at some key indicators, such as:
Global liquidity
Stablecoin index
Altcoin season index
All these signals indicate a potential trend reversal and liquidity influx into the crypto market, signaling the arrival of the altcoin season.
But this time, the altcoin season will be different.
In the last cycle, there were fewer altcoins, so almost all coins surged. This time is different: severe oversupply makes it difficult for all altcoins to maintain upward momentum. Likely, less than 10% will see significant changes; the key is how to find these potentials.
Your choice depends on the level of risk you are willing to take and how much profit you hope to gain.
Large-cap stocks = low profits + low risk
Mid-cap stocks = moderate profits + moderate risk
Small-cap stocks = high profits + high risk
Altcoin research methodology
If it is a high market cap and utility token, rather than a newly emerged meme coin, it is best to pay attention, as the risk of falling victim to scams is lower in this case. Tokens can be analyzed based on several aspects:
Market cap
Liquidity
Trading volume
Listing status on centralized and decentralized exchanges
Then create a list of altcoins you like.
Follow credible KOLs and investigate whether they are paying attention to or mentioning the project.
If a project is being followed by many KOLs but they themselves are not enthusiastic, then it's likely that this thing is garbage.
Analyze the project
Start detailed research on the altcoins in your list
Check the following:
1) What is the core concept of the project? Is there market demand?
2) How is the product quality? Please check its official website and social media platforms in detail.
3) Are the project team members public? Who are they? What are their backgrounds?
Patience + belief = hundredfold returns
A hundredfold return will not happen in a day, a week, or even a month.
Through in-depth research on potential projects and holding them long-term.
Continuously track project progress, version updates, and ecosystem activity.
The most important principle:
Do not over-diversify your holdings. Do not invest based on others’ beliefs. The screenshot below illustrates the reasons.
Conclusion
Most indicators clearly indicate that the altcoin season is approaching; the rest is to be fully prepared. Remember: if you believe everything, you believe in nothing. Don't pick dozens of projects; select at most five and maintain a cautious attitude.
Only then can you capture that less than 10% of potential altcoins that are expected to achieve hundredfold returns. If this is not enough, just look at this chart and you will know.
0 out of 30 bull market peak indicators have been triggered. Strange, isn't it?
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