#BTC走势分析
Bitcoin #BTC Recent Trend Analysis and Outlook
As of May 16, 2025, the BTC price is around $101,900, with a 24-hour decline of 1.55% and a trading volume of $2.61 billion.
Since breaking through $100,000 at the end of 2024, the price has been oscillating in the high range of $95,000 to $105,000, reflecting the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Recent developments: Expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have increased, boosting the appeal of risk assets, with BTC benefiting significantly. Trump's positive stance on cryptocurrencies once lifted the market, but recent tweets triggered profit-taking, intensifying short-term volatility.
On-chain data shows that on May 7, the chip concentration reached 15.5%, indicating high recognition at the current price level, but selling pressure exists.
Technical analysis: The daily MACD has converged to a death cross, RSI is neutral (50), and the price is operating within the middle band of the Bollinger Bands ($98,000 - $105,000).
Support levels are $98,000 and $95,000, while resistance levels are $105,000 and $110,000. Trading volume is decreasing, and a breakout requires bullish cooperation.
On-chain insights: Long-term holders have low selling willingness, and futures bulls are accumulating at $95,000, while short liquidity is concentrated at $105,000. Spot selling pressure is dominant, and market sentiment is cautious.
Future predictions: Short term (1-2 weeks), BTC may oscillate between $98,000 and $105,000, breaking above $105,000 could see $110,000, while falling below $98,000 may retreat to $95,000.
Mid-term (1-3 months), the interest rate cut cycle could push it up to $120,000 - $130,000, but if macro risks exacerbate, it may drop to $80,000.
Trading advice: For short-term, build positions between $95,000 and $98,000, stop-loss at $92,000, target at $105,000.
For medium to long-term, dollar-cost averaging, increase positions on dips. Beware of high-level pullbacks, and pay attention to the Federal Reserve's policies.
Summary: BTC is in short-term consolidation, bullish in the mid-term.
