Russian tycoons are entering the market to buy up! USDT premium in the East at 3% ignites ETH decoupling trend!
At this moment, the ETH market looks like it's been shoved into a meat grinder by a dog trader—the middle Bollinger Band is firmly stuck to the floor, while the upper band is suffocating. MACD's golden cross underwater is being pulled up hard, while the bars look intimidating, but the trading volume has shrunk to a pinhole. This wave of 'technical bullishness' is likely just a pie in the sky painted by the dog traders.
1. Technical Analysis
The spike from 02:00 to 03:00 directly kicked the price down to near the lower band of the middle band, then pulled back up to close, creating a thrilling range of $60 from a $6.6 movement. This move of 'sweeping stop-losses in a chain' clearly tells retail investors: whether the middle Bollinger Band breaks or not depends on my mood. Now the BOLL three bands have narrowed to a suffocating space, while the MACD golden cross is pushing up against the risk of overbought, resembling the 'death cross' before the explosion of bullishness at the end of April.
2. Under-the-table Financial War
On-chain data has broken the window paper—BlackRock's IBIT ETH holdings surged to 274,000 coins this morning, with a net inflow of 27,000 ETH in a single day. However, this wave of 'institutional buying' needs to be squeezed for truth: the Coinbase premium rate is only 0.3%, indicating that American retail investors haven't followed the trend at all.
3. Policy Minefield
The GENIUS bill, which the Senate voted on at 23:00, is the real bombshell of the night—it requires stablecoins to have a 100% reserve in USD and bans algorithmic stablecoins. If passed, the $46.5 billion reserve gap of USDT would explode on the spot, but ETH, as a decentralized settlement layer, might benefit from this disaster. The Russian central bank's report this morning rated BTC as the 'best asset of April', and the wave of Russian tycoons exchanging USDT for BTC/ETH has already caused a 3% premium on Eastern European exchanges; whether ETH can reap the geopolitical dividend depends on Bitcoin's mood.
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