On May 15, 2025, the crypto market experienced a somewhat sudden overall decline—total crypto market capitalization shrank by 4.4% within 24 hours, dropping from the previous day's high to 3.40 trillion USD, with trading volume also retreating to 119 billion USD. Bitcoin fell below the 103,000 USD mark, ETH adjusted to 2545 USD, and almost all leading cryptocurrencies showed varying degrees of decline.
On one hand, there is price adjustment, and on the other hand, ETF funds are flowing back in; on one hand, the fear and greed index rises to high levels, while on the other hand, institutions are entering in large numbers.
So, is this round of adjustment a top signal, or a buildup phase for a new round of increases? In this market observation, we attempt to peel back the layers and clarify the multiple variables of the current turbulence.
1. From rising to adjustment: a natural correction under the dual effects of overheating sentiment and technical divergence.
First, it is essential to clarify a core fact: this round of decline is not caused by a 'blow-up', but is a natural pullback after the peak of sentiment and technical indicators.
According to data, as of May 15:
Bitcoin (BTC) fell from a peak of 104,156 USD to 102,067 USD, a 24-hour decline of 1.4%.
Ethereum (ETH) dropped from 2638 USD to 2545 USD, a decline of 3%.
Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA) saw even larger declines, reaching 5.1%.
The crypto market's 'fear and greed index' rose to 71, entering a historically overbought range.
Over the past 30 days, this sentiment index has steadily risen from neutral to extreme greed, which itself is a short-term overheating warning signal.
As indicated by Mlion.ai's sentiment map and K-line structure comparison model, when prices rise continuously for several days but trading volume fails to keep up, coupled with a rapid surge in sentiment, the market often experiences a brief but fierce washout.
2. As prices fall, capital quietly enters the market.
Despite the overall market decline, ETF flows show an interesting contrast:
On May 14, 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of 320 million USD.
Among them, BlackRock alone absorbed 232.9 million USD.
Compared to the 96.14 million USD net outflow on the previous trading day, the attitude of funds has clearly changed.
What does this mean? This round of adjustment is likely a short-term chip adjustment, with institutions positioning themselves at lower prices. On the surface, it appears that retail investors are panicking and leaving the market, but in reality, the institutions are seizing the opportunity to build their positions.
Mlion.ai's ETF flow tracking module, combined with on-chain address fund movements, shows that large wallets around the 103K mark maintain a net accumulation status, and the short-term price drop has not led to significant loosening of on-chain chips.
3. Bitcoin's 'irreversible upward trajectory': the story is far from over.
Dom Harz, co-founder of the mixed Layer2 project BOB, pointed out in an analysis that Bitcoin's growth is no longer a 'price narrative', but a reflection of systemic adoption.
We are witnessing such changes:
Bitcoin's market capitalization has surpassed that of silver and Google, ranking sixth globally, only behind gold, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and NVIDIA.
The total value locked (TVL) of Bitcoin in DeFi has doubled to 6.216 billion USD within a month.
JPMorgan has begun to openly favor the 'new financial structure' combining DeFi and BTC, predicting it will release a pool of 72 billion USD at the institutional level.
From this dimension, the short-term fluctuations in the current market have not changed Bitcoin's main trend, nor have they shaken the market's perception of its medium to long-term value.
Prices are falling in the short term, but on-chain funds and structure remain stable, which has been validated as a sign of 'healthy correction' in past bull markets.
4. The 'double bottom logic' of Solana and Ethereum: who is cashing out, and who is laying in wait?
Solana's decline has raised concerns about whether its strong trend is coming to an end. But as pointed out by Zhang Kaitai, COO of the Yala liquidity platform:
"Liquidity always follows activity. When the entire market cools down, networks like Solana, which have active ecosystems, are more likely to attract funds."
We can see that:
The user activity in the SOL ecosystem remains high, with DEX trading volume and NFT trading volume not showing a significant decline.
ETH has welcomed the dual benefits of the Pectra upgrade + ETF inflow reversal.
Especially ETH, after breaking below 2500, there are clear signs of rebound. Below 2800 USD is still a medium to long-term value range. The ETH valuation module provided by Mlion.ai currently shows that 2800~3200 is a reasonable central point for ETH based on the current supply and demand and on-chain activity dimensions.
5. Macro variables: Russia-Ukraine negotiations + Federal Reserve interest rates, two ticking time bombs.
In addition to the market's endogenous technical adjustments, recent macro events are also pushing up market uncertainty:
Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia will be held in Istanbul.
Although there are still doubts, if peace expectations materialize, it will greatly boost global risk appetite.The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are wavering.
Voices for a rate cut in July are growing, but the Fed's stance remains 'hawkish'. If inflation exceeds expectations, the policy may be delayed.
In this uncertain cycle, the crypto market is often used as a 'risk thermometer'; any expected fluctuations are directly reflected in prices.
6. Conclusion: Adjustment is not the end, turbulence is the starting point, be prepared to welcome a new wave of volatility.
This market decline is not a signal of a crash, but rather a very typical phase of consolidation. It has not shaken the structural forces on-chain, nor has it broken the trend of ETF and institutional fund inflows.
For investors, the biggest challenge right now is not price volatility, but how to understand the underlying rhythm:
Is it a technical adjustment? Or a structural reversal?
At this time, tools become particularly critical.
For example:
Use Mlion.ai's on-chain heat map to determine whether fund flows have migrated;
Utilize K-line strategy diagrams to analyze whether BTC has formed potential rebound support;
Track ETF movements and address behaviors combined with sentiment analysis to determine whether institutions and retail investors have swapped positions.
Only with sufficient keen insight into these structural variables can one seize the starting point for the next round of upward movement at each moment of 'turning back' in the market.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The investment market is highly volatile; please make rational judgments and make decisions based on your own risk tolerance.