Analysis → Positioning → Trial Trading → Consolidation → Initial Rise → Cleaning Up → Surge → Distribution → Rebound → Crash → Cycle of Reincarnation...
1. Preparation Stage
Before the market makers start to intervene in a specific cryptocurrency, they will comprehensively collect data on the project from all aspects, including total chip quantity, unlocking situation for accurate statistics, cost of investors at various levels, degree of chip dispersion, and assessment of community enthusiasm, etc.
After collecting the information, they will set the target for price rise based on the scale of funds they can mobilize. (For altcoins, ignore those that issue their own coins)
2. Positioning Stage
Before positioning, market makers will carry out various investigations and studies covering market sentiment, the overall trend of BTC in the crypto market, macroeconomic factors, and policy risks, etc.
Typically, market makers will choose to enter the market when the overall market outlook is pessimistic, sentiment is low, inexperienced investors are discouraged, and there is a pessimistic attitude towards the future of the cryptocurrency. As the saying goes, when retail investors are fearful, it is the time for market makers to be greedy.
Depending on the strength of the market makers, their holding ratios may vary. Short-term market makers can control 10% - 30% of the chip quantity to operate, while long-term market makers often need to hold more than 40% of the chips. Of course, this also depends on the strength of the market maker. Generally, market makers will not position at high prices.
The positioning methods of market makers mainly include the following:
a. Negative News Accumulation: Using negative news from the crypto market, such as project technical failures or rumors of stricter regulations, to suppress the coin price, triggering panic selling, thereby accumulating chips at low prices.
b. Inducing Short Traps: Creating a false appearance of price decline through technical means, inducing retail investors to sell, while market makers absorb at low prices, completing their positioning.
c. Large Quantity Buying: Concentrating funds to buy the target cryptocurrency in large amounts over a short period, increasing transaction volume, attracting follow-up trades, and secretly collecting chips.
d. Rebound Stockpiling: Gradually buying during the rebound phase after a price drop, utilizing the psychology of some investors to break even or take profits, expanding their holdings.
e. New Project Ambush: When related projects of the target cryptocurrency have significant technological upgrades, new application scenarios, or strategic collaborations expected, positioning in advance.
3. Trial Trading Stage
During this stage, market makers slightly raise or suppress the coin price, observing market buying and selling behaviors, transaction volumes, order hanging situations, and emotional fluctuations, to understand key information such as chip locking levels, strength of follow-up trades, resistance, and support levels, providing a basis for micro-adjustments in subsequent trading strategies.
However, trial trading is not a mandatory option. Some market makers may directly initiate a price surge or take other actions based on their keen market intuition and rich experience. Moreover, the timing for trial trading is flexible and can be carried out at any time during the market-making process.
4. Consolidation Stage
Consolidation aims to optimize the chip structure and build up upward momentum. Depending on the price position, it can be subdivided into low, medium, and high level consolidation. Price trends generally alternate between rising, falling, and consolidating, with consolidation occupying a significant amount of time. During this stage, price fluctuations are mild and direction unclear, testing investors' patience. Market makers use this time to consolidate their holding costs, clean up floating chips, and wait for the opportunity to surge. This stage often tests the patience of inexperienced investors since the trend can be quite frustrating.
5. Initial Rise Stage
After completing the preliminary preparations, market makers initiate the initial rise, moderately raising the coin price to attract market attention, stimulating enthusiasm for entry from outside funds, and reducing subsequent resistance for further rises. However, to avoid revealing intentions too early, triggering follow-up trades and regulatory scrutiny, the initial rise is limited, followed by a slight retreat in the coin price to clean up profit-taking positions and unstable chips, laying the foundation for a stable rise later.
6. Cleaning Up Stage
After accumulating a certain amount of chips, to expel follow-up trades and force early holders to sell, market makers will adopt a strategy of suppressing the coin price. This can absorb more chips at low prices, reduce holding costs, and eliminate weak-willed retail investors, reducing subsequent sell pressure for higher price distribution.
7. Surge Stage
After a series of operations including accumulation, trial trading, and cleaning up, the long and short sides have formed a high degree of unity. Once market makers control a large amount of chips and stabilize the market, the rise of the coin price becomes a natural outcome. In the surge stage, prices rise rapidly, with market makers cleverly utilizing factors such as market enthusiasm, technical indicators, and positive news to attract more investors to follow the trend, driving the price to new highs and achieving substantial profits.
8. Distribution Stage
As the saying goes, "Knowing how to buy is a novice, knowing how to sell is a master." Distribution is a key goal for market makers. Successfully distributing chips is the only way to convert paper profits into actual gains. Distribution is the most critical stage in the market-making process because only by successfully distributing chips can market makers convert paper profits into actual gains.
To achieve this, market makers will use all means, such as creating a false appearance of market prosperity, leveraging media and public opinion to guide sentiment, and using associated accounts for fake transactions to create a lively atmosphere, thereby enticing uninformed investors to take over, ensuring smooth distribution.
9. Rebound Stage
After a price drop, a brief rebound often occurs, known as the rebound stage. When the market makers cause the price to drop near the profit line, some inexperienced investors, with their "bottom-fishing" mentality and the need to sell off remaining chips, will slightly raise the price, creating a rebound trend.
However, this is often short-lived. After the rebound ends, the price is likely to continue falling, potentially hitting new lows. If investors hastily attempt to "catch the bottom," they can easily fall into a trap. The rebound stage is a secondary phase in the market-making process; some targets may not experience a rebound.
10. Crash Stage
a. Passive Selling: Encountering sudden negative news, such as major technical vulnerabilities, disputes with project parties, or sudden regulatory policy changes, triggering a wave of panic selling in the market, market makers may be forced to crash the price to minimize losses. This action may lead market makers to abandon the market or seek opportunities to buy at low prices after the crash, regaining control.
b. Crashing After High-level Selling: After successfully distributing at high prices and securing profits, the remaining small amount of chips is no longer significant. At this point, crashing the price can suppress it while also positioning for subsequent low-cost chip accumulation, without concern for market image or costs.
c. Crashing for New Trends: After a round of speculation ends, market makers will deliberately crash the price using their remaining chips to create a bearish atmosphere, inducing investors to sell while testing market bottoms and investor psychology, laying the groundwork for initiating the next trend. This starts a new cycle of harvesting.
Regardless of the type of market maker, they always go through the three stages of positioning, surging, and distributing. This is the most basic "trilogy" of market-making.
One must often think from the perspective of the main force, considering the intentions of the market makers, to follow their steps and share in the profits!
The cryptocurrency market is always repeating yesterday's story.
While the speculative sectors change, prices change, and the people buying and selling change, human nature remains unchanged.