Pepe Coin (PEPE) has been on a winning streak. Over the past two weeks, it has gained more than 50%, and just in the last seven days, it surged 55% against Bitcoin. Among meme coins, it’s clearly standing out as one of the top performers. However, technical indicators and on-chain metrics now signal that the party might be nearing its end.
📈 PEPE Breaks Key Resistance Against BTC
The PEPE/BTC trading pair has shot up, breaking the psychological barrier of 0.00000000010 BTC, which has now turned into a support zone. At the moment, PEPE is trading around 0.0000000001325 BTC, ranking it as one of the strongest meme coins this cycle — even outshining the recent hype surrounding Solana's "Fartcoin."
But no rally lasts forever. A combination of technical signals and blockchain activity suggests that the bullish momentum may be fading.
⚠ Technical Analysis: Is the Trend Losing Steam?
The PEPE/BTC chart (normalized to a 100-point scale for clarity) shows that the price has not surpassed the peak of 72.22, last seen in January 2025. If PEPE breaks below the support level at 61.59 and closes a daily candle under it, that could confirm a bearish reversal.
In that case, price predictions indicate a potential decline first to 41.82, and then further down to 40.11.
As PEPE shows signs of weakening against BTC, investors may want to secure their bullish gains before a potential downturn hits.
🧮 On-Chain Metrics: Profit-Taking Signals Emerge
The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) provides insight into investor behavior by comparing current token price to average purchase price. The 30-day MVRV ratio for PEPE is now at 25.82%, down from a dangerously high level of nearly 40%.
Historically, these elevated MVRV levels — known as "danger zones" — have often signaled market tops. Currently, the ratio is approaching Zone 1 around 20%, a level commonly associated with profit-taking by short-term holders.
After last week's rally, many of these short-term investors are sitting on large unrealized profits, which increases the chances of a sudden sell-off.
📉 Steeper Correction on the Horizon?
If the market heads downward, these short-term holders could begin offloading their tokens in larger volumes — potentially triggering an even deeper correction for PEPE.
🔍 Summary and Outlook
PEPE’s recent explosion reflects a renewed appetite for high-risk altcoins, but technical and on-chain indicators warn of an overheated market. The key level to watch is the 61.59 support — if the daily chart closes below it, that would likely confirm a bearish trend shift.
📌 Traders may want to lock in profits or use trailing stop-loss orders to protect gains and prepare for a possible downturn.
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