Today's Observation: Will Powell Speak Again Tonight and Cause a Stir?
At 8:30 PM tonight, we will see unemployment benefits, retail monthly rate, and PPI data. Ten minutes after the announcement, Powell will deliver the opening remarks at a Federal Reserve research conference. This conference mainly focuses on monetary policy and macroeconomics... Therefore, outsiders predict that Powell's speech may hint at some clues...
The retail monthly rate data is also crucial, with the current forecast at 0%...? If there is no growth in April sales, the market will start to worry about weak consumption and economic slowdown...
Back to the market, following the oscillation strategy set in the last two days, both lower long positions have already entered the market... It remains to be seen whether this wave will oscillate or break...
Currently, this downward wave is mainly due to yesterday's 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking 4.5%, leading to a drop in stock index futures and Bitcoin...
From the funding perspective, ETF funds have resumed inflows yesterday, and both large and small funds are flowing in, with a net inflow of 300 million... As long as there is no continuous net outflow for three days, the sentiment will not turn bearish... The funding divergence from Monday to Wednesday further strengthens the oscillation trend...
There is currently no reference point below in order flow, and there are no significant orders at round numbers like near 100K, with only a single order of 70 at 100K...
From the clearing liquidity perspective, there is a hollow part between 99K and 100K... Above 100K, there is a slight accumulation near the previous low... It cannot be ruled out that if today's retail monthly rate data is poor, there may be a dip to 100K... If it breaks below 100K and does not recover, then the lower long positions may exit...
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