BTC has been in a stagnant state for several days, struggling to move upwards. Based on the current trend, it is likely to touch the 100,000 mark. If it breaks below this position today, the market will return to the 96,000-98,000 range. We expect to re-establish our positions around the 92,000-96,000 range.
If Bitcoin holds steady, it might be around the 96,000 mark. However, if Bitcoin drops significantly, it could return to the vicinity of 90,000. This is the current market situation, and for intraday trading, we should focus on the support level around the 100,000-101,000 range.
Recently, there have been rumors that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates until December, but I still firmly believe that there is a high possibility of a rate cut in July!
First, let's look at the U.S. GDP, which directly fell by 0.3% in the first quarter. Analysis of this data has been overwhelming, so I won't belabor the point. By definition, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth constitute an official recession, but inflation is still high, so saying that the U.S. is in stagflation is not an exaggeration. Earlier data indicated that inflation was finally being suppressed, and the Federal Reserve should have gradually cut rates to stimulate the economy, but then came the unexpected tariff war.
The U.S. and China are imposing tariffs on each other, and the key is that the U.S. cannot find alternative sources for Chinese manufacturing in the short term. Complete decoupling is impossible, and these high tariffs will inevitably lead to imported inflation. Trump previously mentioned tax cuts, probably to offset the money the public has to pay due to tariffs, but although tariffs have temporarily eased, there has been no sign of tax cut policies.
The Federal Reserve is now like a person being roasted over a fire—if inflation can't be brought down, they have to raise interest rates, but with economic recession, they urgently need to cut rates. It's a dead end on both sides! To put it another way, it's like a pool where water is being added while simultaneously drained. To empty the pool, one would normally close the water inlet first, but the Federal Reserve cannot shut off the 'inlet' of inflation, so they can only increase the 'drainage' rate, hoping that the economic growth rate can outpace inflation. However, reality is not that ideal, yet the rate cut is basically a foregone conclusion, as the Federal Reserve has no other options. Moreover, there's also the time bomb of U.S. Treasury bonds; they can only delay and must deal with the immediate crisis first.
Let's talk about the timing of interest rate cuts. Most of the relevant data has been released, and the Federal Reserve can calculate their next moves based on these changes. Moreover, a large wave of U.S. Treasury bonds is set to mature in June. Given these circumstances, I dare say that the Federal Reserve will take action to cut rates in July! However, just cutting rates is not enough; quantitative easing (QE) combined with rate cuts is the ultimate strategy. As for when this combination will be implemented, we will have to wait and see.
I have always suggested that small investors should buy altcoins.
In the cryptocurrency sector, all industrial chains, communities, media, institutions, exchanges, and project parties are 99.9% centered around the theme of altcoins. Regardless of how you view altcoins or any biases you may have, they are a real presence. Small investors buying Bitcoin or Ethereum can at most see a five-fold increase, which is not very meaningful. Altcoins, especially those with a market cap below 500 million, often experience price surges. Finding the right opportunity to heavily invest in such altcoins and waiting for returns is the way to go. With strict stop-loss strategies, turning 10,000 into several multiples is not a big issue.
If you want to make an effort now, this circle won't give you much time—at most two years. Within two years, the cryptocurrency sector will undergo further reshuffling, moving towards depersonalization, stock market-like characteristics, financialization, and class solidification, becoming another financial world parallel to traditional finance. By then, merely trying to turn things around through effort will be meaningless. Fortunately, for ordinary people and vulnerable groups in the cryptocurrency sector, effort is still relatively proportional to the money earned.
At most two years, put in some effort, and there will still be opportunities. Understand your core demands and then do what you need to do, that's all.
A once-in-a-century upheaval in the cryptocurrency sector, I am looking forward to it immensely.
