《Why Does Ice Frog Want to Advertise?》

Not everyone likes watching ads, but I quite enjoy them, especially large-scale advertisements.

I can often glean a lot from these ads, the most obvious being the project's operational rhythm, which KOLs they have chosen for promotion, what the budget looks like, and the content of the promotion can indicate recent activities or the importance and status of a certain product within the project. The most valuable insight might be the clues to infer or identify the TGE timing.

I believe that the TGE timing is the most important factor in all investment research elements. Why? I keep emphasizing the value of investment research. I was the first to mention calculating airdrop odds in the circle. All my yield farming investments are based on odds calculations; as long as the odds are high enough, I will invest. If the odds are low, even if it is hyped to the sky, I won't engage. I never rush in just because of a large funding round or a good fundamental situation, nor do I abandon research simply because the fundamentals are average.

So how do you calculate the odds? Cake size ÷ number of people sharing the cake ÷ cost incurred = odds. Project narrative, track, funding—these fundamentals only affect the market cap ceiling, which means they only influence the size of the cake. The number of people sharing the cake requires backtracking on-chain and off-chain data, and the odds calculated based on costs are just a volatile range value, which likely decreases over time. If the time span is too long, the odds may drop below 1, meaning one could face losses from reverse farming. Classic examples include Linea, ZKSync, and Staknet; all of them experienced this issue because the time dragged on without an increase in the total cake, while the number of people sharing it continued to rise.

So why do I like watching ads? Because ads are often one of the signals for TGE nodes. The TGE timing is the most important; once the time is determined, the odds can essentially be confirmed. That's why I really like the opportunities before the TGE; the odds can be well established, and I can estimate a rough snapshot time based on the activity cycle. With odds, you can dive right in and achieve real short and swift results.

Ads are also a part of my information model. My advertising fees are relatively high; there are really not many KOLs more expensive than me. However, I have never changed my price; the price for 40k followers is the same as for 130k followers now because I don’t focus on volume, only screening projects. I believe that only high thresholds can achieve the goal of filtering projects, so the ones I can negotiate with are typically those with solid fundamentals and ample budgets.

As for advertising, I explain narratives, technology, and industry tracks in a straightforward manner. This is part of the fundamentals, which affect the market cap ceiling, and this is one of the elements of investment research, which I believe is also very important, but it is definitely not yield farming investment advice! I also usually state at the end of my articles that real yield farming investment opportunities need to combine fundamental research with on-chain and off-chain data, TGE timing, and odds calculations for a comprehensive judgment.

I don’t like people engaged in pyramid schemes participating in yield farming investments; this is similar to my disinclination to tout a certain cryptocurrency. Such investment advice carries significant risks, and I am unwilling to partake in it. Even if some yield farming doesn’t require investment funds and is just zero-sum, it still requires time and effort. I believe that time and effort are scarce resources in this circle, so I am also reluctant to “sell risks” in this manner.

Lastly, I need to obtain the information I want from the project parties. I require some non-public information to enhance my judgment about the project. It’s like playing Texas Hold'em; I secretly get to see one or several more hole cards. This not only optimizes my judgment of opportunity odds but also gives me the confidence to take positions. I often embed the information I obtain in the advertising content I write. This kind of non-disclosable information can only be conveyed in this way, leaving it for those who are truly interested.