《Why Does Ice Frog Advertise?》

Nobody likes to see ads, but I quite enjoy watching them, especially large-scale ads. I can learn a lot from these advertisements, one obvious thing is to see the operational rhythm of the project team, which KOLs they have chosen for promotion, what the budget is, and the content of the promotion can also reveal recent activities or the importance and status of a certain product within the project. The most valuable aspect may be that it can provide clues to speculate or find out the TGE timing.

I believe that the TGE timing is the most important factor among all investment research elements. Why? I have been emphasizing the value of investment research continuously. I was the first to mention calculating airdrop odds in the circle. All my yield farming investments are based on odds calculations. As long as the odds are high enough, I will proceed; if the odds are low, even if they are hyped up, I won’t participate. I never rashly get involved just because the funding is large or the fundamentals are good, nor do I give up research because the fundamentals are average.

So how are the odds calculated? Cake size ÷ number of people sharing the cake ÷ costs incurred = odds. Project narrative, track, and financing will only affect the market value ceiling, meaning they will only affect the cake size. The number of people sharing the cake requires a retrospective analysis of on-chain and off-chain data, and the odds calculated based on costs are merely an unstable range value, which is likely to decrease over time. If the time period is too long, the odds may fall below the value of 1, meaning you risk being liquidated and losing money. Classic examples include Linea, ZkSync, and Staknet, all of which suffered from delays; under the condition that the total cake hasn’t increased, the number of people sharing the cake continues to rise.

So why do I like to watch ads? Because ads are often one of the signals for TGE nodes. The TGE timing is the most crucial; once the timing is determined, the odds can generally be established. Therefore, I really like the opportunities before TGE, where the odds can be clearly defined, and I can estimate the approximate snapshot timing based on the activity cycle. With odds available, I go for it directly, achieving real short and quick returns.

Ads are also part of my information model. My advertising costs are relatively high; there are really not many KOLs who charge more than I do, but I have never changed my price. The price for 40k followers is the same as the price for 130k followers now because I don’t pursue volume, only screening projects. I believe that only high thresholds can achieve the purpose of filtering projects, so in the end, the deals that can be made are essentially projects with relatively high-quality fundamentals and sufficient budgets.

Then for ads, I explain the narrative, technology, and industry track in a way that is easy to understand. This falls under the fundamentals, which influence the market value ceiling, and I consider this an important element of investment research, but it is definitely not a yield farming investment recommendation! I also usually state at the end that real yield farming investment opportunities, besides fundamental research, require a comprehensive judgment that combines on-chain and off-chain data, TGE timing, and odds calculations.

I don’t like pyramid schemes participating in yield farming investments. This is similar to my dislike for shouting out a certain cryptocurrency; such investment advice carries significant risks, and I am unwilling to do this. Even if some yield farming doesn’t require investment funds, only 0 investment, it still requires time and effort. I believe that time and energy are scarce resources in this circle, so I also do not wish to “sell risks” in this way.

Lastly, I need to get the information I want from the project team. I need some non-public information to enhance my judgment about the project, equivalent to me playing Texas Hold'em and secretly looking at one or two more hole cards. This not only optimizes my judgment on opportunity odds but also gives me the confidence to position myself. The information I obtain is often hidden within the content of the ads I write. Such non-disclosable information can only be conveyed this way, left for those who are truly interested.