#美国加征关税 Trump's Big Move! Tax Cuts + Tariff Storm, Will the Market Soar or Crash? Will Cryptocurrency Boom or Cool Down?

Friends, Trump is making big moves again! Recently, he announced tariffs on imported goods while promoting the largest tax cut bill in US history, a combination that has stirred global markets into chaos. Today, we will discuss whether this operation is an 'economic rocket' or a 'time bomb,' especially regarding its impact on cryptocurrencies and the stock market, which are of most concern to ordinary investors!

1. Are Tax Cuts Honey or Arsenic?

First, let's talk about tax cuts. Trump plans to reduce the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, and extend personal tax cuts. This move looks attractive in the short term: more corporate profits may lead to rising stock prices, and ordinary people may have extra cash to spend. For example, companies in the S&P 500 could see profits increase by 5%-8%, and the stock market may have another surge. Moreover, overseas funds might flow back to the US, making dollar assets more appealing, potentially boosting US stocks and bonds.

However, the cost of tax cuts is also significant. Congress has estimated that the deficit could increase by $3.7 trillion over the next decade! With the government borrowing more, Treasury yields are rising rapidly, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has reached 4.46%, making borrowing increasingly expensive. If inflation rises due to tariffs, the Federal Reserve may have no choice but to raise interest rates, making it harder for businesses to finance, which could drag down the economy.

2. Tariff War: Inflicting 1000 Damage to the Enemy, Self-Inflicting 800?

Now let's talk about tariffs. Trump plans to impose a 10%-20% tax on imported goods, and for Chinese goods, it could even reach 60%! This move was originally intended to protect American companies, but it may end up backfiring. According to the S&P, if a 60% tariff is imposed on Chinese goods, US inflation could rise by 1.2 percentage points, and economic output could decrease by 0.5%. Prices go up, people's wallets shrink, and business costs rise accordingly, especially for manufacturing and retail industries that rely on imported raw materials, which will see their profits severely squeezed.

The more troublesome aspect is that other countries will definitely retaliate. For instance, China may impose tariffs on US agricultural products, leading to suffering for American farmers. The World Trade Organization has stated that global economic growth could be adjusted down by 0.2-0.3 percentage points, making it hard for everyone.

However, there has been big news recently: China and the US have reached an agreement! From May 14, both sides will cancel 91% of additional tariffs, suspend 24% of tariffs, and retain 10% as negotiation leverage. This is a significant boost for cross-border e-commerce and tech stocks, as platforms like SHEIN and Temu see reduced costs and regained competitiveness. However, the retained 10% tariff remains, and we must keep an eye on further negotiations.

3. Cryptocurrency: A Roller Coaster or a New Trend?

Cryptocurrencies have indeed been on a roller coaster recently. Bitcoin has seen wild fluctuations, soaring and plummeting, and in February 2025, it dropped 5% in a single day due to a hacker attack. However, the 'American Bitcoin' company founded by the Trump family saw its stock price surge 173% in one day, reigniting market optimism over policy dividends.

Now SEC Chairman Paul Atkins intends to loosen regulations on cryptocurrencies, allowing brokers to trade Bitcoin and clarifying rules for security tokens. If this comes to fruition, institutional funds may flood in, as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust's holdings are expected to increase by 30% in 2024. But there are also risks of tightening regulations, such as restrictions on leveraged trading, which may worsen market liquidity.

Additionally, tariffs may push up inflation, theoretically benefiting Bitcoin's 'digital gold' property. However, historical data is not very supportive; during high inflation in 2022, Bitcoin actually fell by 65%. So whether this wave of inflation can boost Bitcoin remains to be seen.

4. Stock Market: Divergence Intensifies, Some Rejoice While Others Worry

US stocks have recently been experiencing a stark contrast. Tech stocks have surged due to easing tariffs and the AI boom, with the Nasdaq entering a bull market, led by chip stocks like Nvidia and AMD. However, traditional manufacturing and retail sectors are struggling, as tariffs have driven up costs and compressed profits. For example, Boeing has received large orders, but the entire industrial sector is still burdened by trade frictions.

Chinese concept stocks have recently been performing well. After the easing of tariffs between China and the US, the stock prices of Pinduoduo and Alibaba rose by over 6%, and Li Auto and Xpeng also followed suit. However, technology sanctions remain, and semiconductor export restrictions have not been lifted, so caution is still necessary.

5. The Bond Market and Commodities: The Game Under Interest Rate Shadows

The bond market is currently experiencing 'interest rate anxiety.' Tax cuts are expanding the deficit, tariffs are pushing up inflation, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has already risen to 4.46%. If the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, growth stocks and high-valuation assets (like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies) may continue to face pressure.

Commodities are also showing clear divergence. Gold has risen to $1965 per ounce due to safe-haven demand and expectations of interest rate cuts. However, crude oil has suffered, with OPEC+ failing to effectively reduce production, combined with economic slowdown, leading WTI crude oil prices to drop to $78.5 per barrel. Industrial metals like steel and aluminum saw a spike when tariffs were raised, but weak demand has caused prices to fall back.

6. What Should Ordinary People Do?

In the face of this wave of policy storms, we ordinary investors need to be flexible. In the stock market, we can focus on domestic manufacturing benefiting from tax cuts, such as steel and automobiles, as well as commodities that resist inflation. Although tech stocks have surged, we must be wary of overvaluation risks. Cryptocurrency can be allocated appropriately, but don't go all in, especially on projects with high policy correlation, like Bitcoin mining and compliant exchanges, which may yield excess returns, but there are also many black swan events.

In terms of the bond market, short-term government bonds may be more stable, while long-term government bonds are significantly affected by interest rate fluctuations, so caution is advised. In the foreign exchange market, the dollar may strengthen in the short term due to capital inflow, but in the long term, fiscal deficits and trade deficits could weaken its credibility, so it's wise to allocate some other currencies to hedge risks.

Summary: Finding Opportunities Amidst Volatility

Trump's policies are like a double-edged sword, potentially stimulating the economy in the short term, but with significant long-term risks. The market will oscillate between optimism and worry, and volatility is inevitable. What we need to do is find safe havens amidst the storm, such as companies with stable cash flow and inflation-resistant assets, while keeping ample ammunition to act when opportunities arise. Remember, investing is not gambling; rationality and patience are the keys to success!

Lastly, a reminder: policies change quickly, we must pay attention to the latest developments and not be led by the market. I wish everyone can make money in this wave of turmoil! 💰#CPI数据来袭 #贸易战缓和