There are three key differences between the current market and 2021 that are worth noting:
1. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has brought new channels for institutional funds;
2. The global macroeconomic environment is on the eve of an interest rate cut cycle;
3. The supply reduction effect after the fourth halving has not yet fully manifested. These factors may delay but not necessarily completely reverse potential technical adjustments.
Currently, three market characteristics need to be particularly noted:
The rhetoric of "eternal bull market" on social media has begun to show divergence; futures funding rates have returned to neutral ranges; the altcoin market is exhibiting a clear phenomenon of rotation and catch-up. These are often accompanying characteristics when the market enters a phase of a peak.
The deep participation of traditional financial institutions in this cycle may change the operating rules of the market. Asset management giants like BlackRock hold more Bitcoin than some early miners, and this structural change may weaken the predictive power of purely technical analysis. At the same time, policy variables such as progress from the U.S. SEC and various central bank digital currencies may become key factors that disrupt the current market balance.
The market is always repeating history, but it will not simply replicate history. In the face of the current complex market environment, it is even more necessary to maintain a clear understanding: one must be vigilant against risk signals from the technical perspective, while also objectively assessing the deep structural changes in the market. In the high volatility realm of cryptocurrency, controlling risk is always the top priority for long-term survival.
