#美国加征关税

1. First, let's get to the point, comprehensive judgment

1. Short-term: The combination of tariffs and tax cuts may lead to increased market volatility, especially as global trade uncertainty and inflation risks may overshadow the optimistic sentiments brought by tax cuts. U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies may face a pullback, while a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields will further suppress risk assets.

2. Long-term: If the tax cut bill passes smoothly and stimulates economic growth, the U.S. market may gain support, but a global trade war could drag down the global economy and push up demand for safe-haven assets. Bitcoin may benefit from its safe-haven properties in the medium to long term, but caution is warranted regarding the risks of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to combat inflation.

2. Impact on cryptocurrencies and risk assets

1. Short-term pressure: Market turmoil caused by tariffs and a strong dollar may pressure cryptocurrencies. Recent posts indicate that tariffs have led to a decline of about 13% in the total market value of cryptocurrencies, with significant fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. A strong dollar typically diminishes the attractiveness of risk assets like Bitcoin.

2. Long-term potential: Geopolitical and trade war uncertainties may enhance Bitcoin's 'digital gold' attributes. If inflation continues to rise, investors may turn to cryptocurrencies to hedge against the depreciation of fiat currencies.

3. Increased volatility: The cryptocurrency market is sensitive to macroeconomic indicators (such as inflation and interest rates). The Federal Reserve's dilemma between growth and anti-inflation measures may lead to price volatility. Bitcoin recently broke through $100,000, but sustained high volatility may limit its short-term upward momentum.