The Sino-US trade war has made new progress, but the road ahead is still long. The 90-day tariff "truce" seems to have given both sides a step down, temporarily avoiding further economic deterioration. Especially for China, facing the domestic real estate crisis, high youth unemployment and sluggish consumption, this agreement is like timely rain, which can give export companies a breather and inject some confidence into the market. On the US side, although Trump touted the "full restart" on social media, in fact, the tariff reduction and the temporary nature of the agreement show that this is more like a stopgap measure than a real breakthrough. The significance of this negotiation is more about "stopping the bleeding" rather than "curing the root cause". The root of the trade imbalance lies in the differences in the economic structure and policies of the two countries. 90 days may not be enough to resolve these deep-seated contradictions. Behind China's tough attitude and the United States' aggressiveness are the manifestations of domestic political and economic pressures. Beijing needs to maintain its image as a great power while coping with the domestic economic downturn; Washington must fulfill its promises to voters and show the results of its tough stance on China. The compromise between the two sides in Geneva is, to some extent, a victory for rationality and reality, but how far this compromise can go depends on the next consultations.
In the coming months, geopolitical interference, pressure from domestic public opinion, and uncertainty in the global economy may cause the negotiations to fluctuate again. If the two sides can truly focus on pragmatic cooperation during this 90-day window, such as clarifying rules and reducing subsidy disputes, they may be able to gain more stability for the global economy. But if the negotiation table is just a show, the problem will come back sooner or later. I hope this "truce" can be a turning point, rather than the beginning of another tug-of-war.