The current price of $BTC BTC is fluctuating in the range of $103,000-$104,000, with a daily high reaching $104,937 but failing to break through the key resistance level of $105,000. Although there has been a cumulative increase of over 10% since early May, the recent upward momentum has weakened, showing signs of high-level consolidation. The technical indicators show that the MACD has formed a death cross at high levels, the RSI has fallen from the overbought zone to 56, and the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with prices fluctuating around the middle band. Attention should be paid to the support level in the range of $101,000-$102,000.

Short-term driving factors

Policy: The easing of tariffs between China and the United States and the 'digital gold strategy' promoted by the Trump administration have boosted market confidence, but ETF funds have seen a net outflow for two consecutive days (over $90 million in a single day), indicating a willingness among institutions to take short-term profits.

On-chain data: The activity of whale addresses has decreased, with some funds being transferred to exchanges, and the net inflow to exchanges has risen to 2,000 BTC/day, which may intensify selling pressure.

Daily level: The price is still in a high-level consolidation structure, but the MACD death cross and the RSI decline indicate short-term correction pressure. If it breaks below $101,000, it may trigger further correction to $98,000.

Hourly level: Both the MACD and RSI show a need for overbought correction. If it breaks below the psychological level of $100,000, it may test the support range of $96,000-$98,000.

Potential breakout directions

Upside breakout: If it stabilizes above $105,000, it may open up upside space to $110,000.

Downside risk: If it breaks below $100,000, it is necessary to be alert to trend reversal signals, especially when combined with the weekly level divergence pattern.