According to BlockBeats, on May 14, Coindesk analyst Oliver Knight stated that Bitcoin's price trend is accompanied by on-chain indicators similar to those in 2021, potentially forming a 'double top' structure.
Oliver Knight explained that the first indicator to watch is the weekly RSI, which has shown three bearish divergences in March 2024, December 2024, and May 2025. (RSI is a technical indicator used to measure the average gains and losses over a certain period, to assess potential overbought or oversold conditions. A bearish divergence occurs when the RSI trend is downward while the price trend is upward.)
Additionally, the trading volume during this breakout is lower than the level at the initial breakout of $100,000, indicating that the momentum of this increase is weakening. Trading volumes on cryptocurrency and institutional trading platforms have decreased, with the trading volume of Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) failing to exceed 35,000 contracts in three of the past four weeks. In contrast, during the last breakout of $100,000, the trading volume often exceeded 65,000 contracts, with three instances exceeding 85,000 contracts.
Moreover, the open interest has also diverged from the price trend, with the current open interest declining by 13% from its initial rise to $109,000 in January, while the price has only dropped by 5.8%. Four years ago, when Bitcoin reached $69,000, despite a price increase of 6.6%, the open interest had decreased by 15.6% from the initial peak of $65,000.
Oliver Knight added that these indicators do indeed suggest that, although Bitcoin prices may reach new highs like in 2021, the momentum of this trend is weakening.
