The most important macro data today is undoubtedly the CPI announced at 8:30. If I were to summarize this data in three words, it would be 'pretty good'. However, I believe most viewers are more interested in whether inflation will become a threat to the cryptocurrency market going forward.
Data shows that in April, both core and overall CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, slightly lower than the market expectation of 0.3%. Year-on-year, the core CPI remained at 2.8%, in line with expectations, while the overall CPI fell to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021.
Although Wall Street generally views this as a positive inflation report, we must be cautious about the limitations of short-term benefits — the goods sector is affected by tariffs, and there is significant upward price pressure on categories like automobiles in the future. Currently, the month-on-month price of new cars has zero growth, while used car prices have fallen by 0.5%, presenting a deflationary trend that contradicts the price momentum brought by previous consumer purchases, leading to uncertainty in future trends.
Sub-item data reveals that the cooling of inflation is not thorough: the services sector rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with housing rent-related indicators increasing by 0.3%-0.4%. Although the annualized rate of 3.6% is below the full-year level of 4%, the pace of decline remains slow and stubborn; in the transportation sector, car insurance has turned from decline to increase, while airfare prices have plummeted by 2.8%, and medical services maintain a relatively high increase of 0.5%.
This structural difference limits market optimism, and even the Federal Reserve's 'mouthpiece' Nick pointed out that this data is insufficient to change the Fed's wait-and-see policy stance; inflation management still requires a longer verification period. But one thing is certain: today's significant rise in the cryptocurrency market is closely tied to this CPI data.
