Preface
As mentioned in the weekly reports of the past two weeks regarding the significant concentration of chips in the '93K ~ 99K' range and the convergence of volatility, today, BTC has welcomed a surge that excites all bulls.
This week's weekly report indeed contains quite a bit of noteworthy content; the volume of information may be a bit overwhelming, hoping all readers can understand.
Let's take a look at this week's '#TopEscapeWeeklyReport' content!
URPD
Currently, the accumulation volume above 81K is 5,370,354 units.
From the accumulation volume growth rate, this week remains at a similar pace with no obvious abnormalities.
As stated in last week's weekly report regarding the URPD section, the concentration at 93K to 99K significantly increased at that time, accompanied by a convergence of volatility, and BTC also showed a stance this week.
Now, the BTC price has left the range of 93K to 99K. From the perspective of chips, the risk for bulls must come from the profit-taking sell-off in the 93K to 99K range.
This type of risk is also the 'gravitational effect' mentioned repeatedly in the previous analysis of URPD.
RUP & Realized Profit
Regarding the analysis logic of RUP, please refer to the text below:
Market Barometer RUPL (II) – Strongest Top Signal & Detailed Historical Cycle Top Analysis
Top Signal Tracking: The three-phase divergence of Schrödinger's RUP has already appeared.
Regarding the analysis logic of Realized Profit, please refer to the text below:
Top Signal Tracking: Significant volume of Realized Profit reappears.
Two points worth noting:
Realized Profit begins to show significant volume.
This indicates that the chips bought at low levels have started to take profits; although the volume cannot be compared to previous massive distributions, if a larger volume of Realized Profit appears in the future, it will be a risk that all bulls need to be cautious about.
Additionally, in the analysis, the large volume of Realized Profit cannot be directly compared to previous massive distributions, because this time the accumulation time is much shorter, so it cannot create the same large volume as before.
RUP Divergence
If BTC reaches new highs in the future, RUP will inevitably show divergence again. This situation is very similar to 2021, and I have also conducted a detailed analysis of such situations previously.Further discussion on RUP divergence signals: Principle analysis based on the current market situation & subsequent script interpretation.
At that time, applying the logic of 2021, if RUP divergence appears again at smaller levels, it will be a highly accurate and significant top risk.
STH-RP & AVIV Heatmap
For the analysis logic of STH-RP, you can refer to the following post:
Countdown of fluctuations, the tightening lifeline STH-RP.
Current STH-RP value is 93,758.
This week, I intentionally extended the display period of STH-RP to 2021.
In the image below, I have marked two red areas. After the second major wave in 2021, the price retraced to STH-RP once; today, if a pullback occurs in the future, the position of STH-RP will be a key defense zone.
From the perspective of AVIV Heatmap, the current BTC price is very close to the overheating area, and the price that triggers overheating is '106,448'.
Conclusion
Key points summary:
URPD: It is necessary to start taking over the profit-taking sell-off from 93K to 99K.
RUP: If new highs are reached in the future, divergence is an inevitable fact. At that time, we can monitor whether smaller levels also show divergence.
Realized Profit: Monitoring for significant volume.
STH-RP & AVIV Heatmap: If a pullback occurs, pay attention to the retracement status of STH-RP; currently, the position that triggers the AVIV Heatmap to overheat is 106,448.
