Market Analysis: These past few days I've been unable to go live due to my tongue being on fire, and my ability to express myself in words is quite limited. Currently, the market is experiencing wide fluctuations, which is indeed quite difficult for small investors with limited funds. A while ago, it was said that shorting was difficult, and now it seems we are in a stage where going long is also challenging, right?
When you find yourself confused in a small price range while trading, and can't make sense of it, it's time to stop getting caught up in the small range. Step back and look at the bigger picture, clear your mind, calm down, and place yourself in a larger cycle (see Figure Four). You'll then understand what you should do. Currently, the central point of BTC at 102500 has been broken. As for whether this is a real break or a false one, we'll know tonight. Generally, I tend to base my trading strategy on a true break. At least for now, my short position has already made a profit of 2WU from the day before yesterday until now, and I plan to take a relatively longer short position with that profit, which I believe will be very cost-effective.
Think with first principles, dig deep into the essence of the problem.
What is the problem with the market right now?
Keep asking yourself, and I believe the answer deep down is often correct, but the premise is that you need to have a certain level of trading literacy. It’s not true that if the market drops, it must rise, and if it rises, it must drop. There are only a few rules governing everything. Look beyond the phenomenon to see the essence; what is the market behavior here?
Here’s my viewpoint:
Currently, the market is quite clear. BTC has already peaked at the high of 104300, but generally, in such major trends, there is a tendency to spike up to clear out high short positions (around 106000) before a rapid decline. It’s very apparent; it’s basically a well-known pattern. Many people are probably trying to go long at this point, but you should abandon that thought. If you want to go long, aiming for around 98 would be much safer. If you want to be very safe, aiming for the EMA moving average of BTC at 94000 is quite reasonable. The timeframe may extend until the end of the month, so some patience is needed, and other coins should align with BTC's position accordingly.
