Market Analysis: These past few days, I've been unable to go live due to a sore tongue, and my ability to express myself in writing is quite limited. Currently, the market is in a wide-ranging fluctuation, which is indeed quite challenging for small retail investors with limited funds. Recently, I mentioned that shorting was difficult, and now it seems we are in a phase where going long is also difficult, right?
When trading, if you find yourself confused in a small price range each time and can't make sense of it, don't get caught up in that small range. Step back to see the larger range, clear your mind, calm down, and place yourself in a larger timeframe (see Chart 4). You'll understand how to act. Currently, the BTC central pivot has broken, and whether it's a true break or a false one will be known by tonight. Generally, I will base my operational strategy on a true break. At least for now, my short position setup since the day before yesterday has already gained 2WU. I plan to use the profits to take a relatively long-term short position, which I think will be very cost-effective.
Think with first principles and dig deep into the essence of the problem.
What the heck is the issue with the market right now?
Ask yourself this question, and I believe the answer deep down is often correct. However, the premise is that you need to possess a certain level of trading literacy. It’s not that if the market goes down, it must go up, and if it goes up, it must go down. There are only a few rules governing everything. Look beyond phenomena to see the essence. What is the market behavior here?
Here’s my viewpoint:
Currently, the market is relatively clear. BTC has actually topped at the high of 104300. However, in such significant market movements, it is common to spike up to clear high short positions (around 104000) before a rapid drop. It’s quite evident, basically textbook behavior. Many people are probably trying to take low long positions again, but I advise against that idea. If you want to go long, trying to reach around 98 would be much safer. For maximum safety, aiming for BTC's EMA moving average at around 94000 seems quite reasonable. The timeframe may need to wait until the end of the month, so a bit of patience is required. Other coins should follow BTC's position accordingly.
