The U.S. April CPI data released on May 13 has become the market focus. The March CPI recorded 2.4% (below the expected 2.5%). If the April data continues the downward trend, it may strengthen expectations for a Fed rate cut, benefiting risk assets; conversely, if inflation rebounds, the dollar index (DXY) may break through the 30-day high, putting pressure on Bitcoin.

Gold and BTC as "safe-haven alternatives": On May 12, gold fell by 3.4%, and DXY climbed to a 30-day high, reflecting investors shifting from scarce assets to the dollar and the stock market. This rotation confirms the short-term positive correlation between Bitcoin and gold.

Long-term narrative of weakening dollar hegemony: Although short-term setbacks are evident, the "local currency settlement pilot" clause in the agreement may weaken the dollar's status in trade settlements. Historical data shows that during the trade war from 2018 to 2020, Bitcoin eventually broke through $20,000 after an initial pullback, and its attribute as a "decentralized settlement tool" may regain attention in the medium to long term.

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