Market and On-Chain Situation
From the URPD data combined with candlestick charts, the current support that bulls are most concerned about is around 100,700, and the next level is 99,000. As long as these two defense lines hold, the market will oscillate around this range, leaning towards a sideways market.
The last time it approached around 106K, the new heat supply could not keep up — indicating that buying interest has started to become cautious and unwilling to chase higher prices.
Macroeconomic Catalysts
The CPI data announced tonight at 8:30 ET is currently the only opportunity for a significant reaction:
If the month-over-month change is below 0.2%, the market will interpret it as a cooling of inflation, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which may boost risk assets overall;
If it exceeds 0.3%, U.S. Treasury yields may surge again, and BTC is likely to cool off as well.
The probability of a rate cut in June is still less than 20%; relying on “immediate rate cuts” for speculation is still premature.
After this round of U.S. stock market gains, will there be funds flowing into BTC? It depends on whether BTC continues to be viewed as a “high-beta tech stock” or “digital gold.” It’s still uncertain at this point.
Trading Thoughts
First, look at CPI: until the data is released, maintain a light position.
Monitor ETF net inflows: as long as funds continue to flow in, various pullbacks are just handovers, not selling off.
Protect the 100K level: if a rally is to happen, it is highly likely to gain volume here.
Beware of false breakouts: if a favorable CPI pushes the price to 106K, but the on-chain heat supply does not follow, do not chase; that may just be a fuel-up in the air, and a quick pullback may occur.
In summary — this is a grinding phase of “neither great joy nor great sorrow.” If tonight's data does not provide a surprise, treat it as a range-bound oscillation; if we are to welcome the next wave of main upward movement, we will need a new story or new liquidity bullets.
